Russia’s monthly inflation inched up in May, marking the first acceleration in six months, though annual inflation fell over the same period.
Consumer prices rose 0.43% last month, up slightly from 0.4% in April, according to data released by the state statistics agency Rosstat.
Economists had widely forecast a continued slowdown in price growth, with most estimates pointing to a monthly rise between 0.22% and 0.25%.
Annual inflation, seen as a more stable indicator of price changes, slowed to 9.8% in May from 10.2% in April. That figure suggests the annual inflation rate is gradually falling back toward the Central Bank’s target of 4%.
However, after this year’s uptick in inflation — 1.2% in January and 0.8% in February — the Central Bank now expects price growth to fall to 7-8% by year’s end, delaying the 4% goal until 2026.
Analysts at the research firm Tverdye Tsifry estimate the seasonally adjusted annualized rate at 5.4% in May, slightly below April’s 5.5%. Gazprombank offered a similar estimate, though it had previously put April’s rate at 6.2%.
The picture remains uneven across sectors. Non-food goods, supported by a strong ruble, have seen outright deflation in some categories.
But food prices continue to rise sharply, with analysts estimating annual inflation in this category at around 11%.
Service sector inflation has cooled slightly, a trend economists attribute to a strengthening ruble and a modest slump in consumer demand.
For now, price pressures appear to be easing, with Rosstat reporting a 0.03% increase in prices for the week of June 3-9 and a 0.04% rise since the start of the month.
Seasonal decreases in fruit and vegetable prices are expected to keep inflation in check through June, with Tverdye Tsifry projecting a monthly increase of just 0.2%.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.
