A government resolution scrapping Russia's oil export quotas has thrown the country's oil industry into confusion: Big companies fear they will lose profits to taxes, small enterprises are worried about maintaining export volumes, but none seems to know what exactly the law will do.
While the resolution is seen by Western economists as a step forward in liberalizing Russia's oil export system, industry executives interviewed Tuesday were doubtful that the law would bring about any positive changes, saying that export quotas -- in one form or another -- would remain.
"The resolution does not seem to change much. Same groups, same commissions," said one senior Western executive at an oil producing joint venture.
"And we still have quotas, although they may call them something else," said the executive, who asked not to be named.
The removal of export quotas is key to a larger reform plan for Russia's oil trade, designed to increase export earning potential, boost tax revenues and make Russia's oil industry more attractive for foreign investment. Under the plan, backed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the government would also free domestic oil prices, cut export taxes and end special export tax exemptions.
The resolution, signed Dec. 31 by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, makes several steps in the direction of reform, but in each case leaves room for withdrawal:
? It removes export quotas, but imposes new government-approved export allocations. A joint commission, including representatives from the fuel and energy, economics and foreign trade ministries, will review allocations quarterly.
? It declares a "principle of fair access" to export pipelines and sea ports, but stipulates that the commission will dole out access depending on companies' total output, domestic market demand, pipeline capacity and the amount of oil that companies sell to the government at reduced prices.
? It cuts the export tariff on oil from 30 ecus ($37) per ton to 23 ecus per ton, but empowers the commission to change the tariff quarterly and does not specify whether or not the tax applies to companies that previously enjoyed export tax exemptions.
The resolution also states that all oil exports should go through firms registered by the Foreign Trade Ministry, which reads as a reference to the existing system of "special exporters" -- big trading companies which have exclusive rights to export oil and were granted tax breaks.
A government official who worked on the resolution said Tuesday that a final decision to remove exemptions had not yet been made. "The question remains open," said the official, who asked not to be named.
But Leonid Fedun, vice president of Russia's largest privatized oil company, LUKoil, said Tuesday that his company's export tax breaks had expired as of this year, and complained that the 23-ecu tax, though lowered, would make exports barely profitable.
"Having to deal with this tax, we may want to sell more domestically," he said, adding that oil companies have proposed that the government lower the tax rate to 15 ecus per ton.
The cancellation of special exemptions would also deal a blow to six foreign oil joint ventures that received tax breaks last October after two years of lobbying -- an event that was hailed as a victory for foreign investment in the oil sector. Those companies are Conoco's Polar Lights, Phibro Energy's White Knights, Gulf Canada's KomiArcticOil, Pennzoil's Siberian American, Andermann Smith and AmKomi.
The Western joint venture executive worried that the new commission would cut his company's export allowance in favor of bigger producers like LUKoil. This could force the joint venture out of business, he said, as proceeds from selling oil domestically would not cover the cost of developing new oil fields.
"You can't bring in foreign capital and then sell oil on the Russian market at the domestic price," he said. Domestic oil prices are presently less than half of world levels of more than $100 per ton.
Russia exported about 89 million tons of crude oil outside the former Soviet Union last year, up 7 percent from 1993, according to preliminary figures of the Fuel and Energy Ministry. Total oil output for 1994 was about 314 million tons, down 11 percent from 1993.
While the resolution is seen by Western economists as a step forward in liberalizing Russia's oil export system, industry executives interviewed Tuesday were doubtful that the law would bring about any positive changes, saying that export quotas -- in one form or another -- would remain.
"The resolution does not seem to change much. Same groups, same commissions," said one senior Western executive at an oil producing joint venture.
"And we still have quotas, although they may call them something else," said the executive, who asked not to be named.
The removal of export quotas is key to a larger reform plan for Russia's oil trade, designed to increase export earning potential, boost tax revenues and make Russia's oil industry more attractive for foreign investment. Under the plan, backed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, the government would also free domestic oil prices, cut export taxes and end special export tax exemptions.
The resolution, signed Dec. 31 by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, makes several steps in the direction of reform, but in each case leaves room for withdrawal:
? It removes export quotas, but imposes new government-approved export allocations. A joint commission, including representatives from the fuel and energy, economics and foreign trade ministries, will review allocations quarterly.
? It declares a "principle of fair access" to export pipelines and sea ports, but stipulates that the commission will dole out access depending on companies' total output, domestic market demand, pipeline capacity and the amount of oil that companies sell to the government at reduced prices.
? It cuts the export tariff on oil from 30 ecus ($37) per ton to 23 ecus per ton, but empowers the commission to change the tariff quarterly and does not specify whether or not the tax applies to companies that previously enjoyed export tax exemptions.
The resolution also states that all oil exports should go through firms registered by the Foreign Trade Ministry, which reads as a reference to the existing system of "special exporters" -- big trading companies which have exclusive rights to export oil and were granted tax breaks.
A government official who worked on the resolution said Tuesday that a final decision to remove exemptions had not yet been made. "The question remains open," said the official, who asked not to be named.
But Leonid Fedun, vice president of Russia's largest privatized oil company, LUKoil, said Tuesday that his company's export tax breaks had expired as of this year, and complained that the 23-ecu tax, though lowered, would make exports barely profitable.
"Having to deal with this tax, we may want to sell more domestically," he said, adding that oil companies have proposed that the government lower the tax rate to 15 ecus per ton.
The cancellation of special exemptions would also deal a blow to six foreign oil joint ventures that received tax breaks last October after two years of lobbying -- an event that was hailed as a victory for foreign investment in the oil sector. Those companies are Conoco's Polar Lights, Phibro Energy's White Knights, Gulf Canada's KomiArcticOil, Pennzoil's Siberian American, Andermann Smith and AmKomi.
The Western joint venture executive worried that the new commission would cut his company's export allowance in favor of bigger producers like LUKoil. This could force the joint venture out of business, he said, as proceeds from selling oil domestically would not cover the cost of developing new oil fields.
"You can't bring in foreign capital and then sell oil on the Russian market at the domestic price," he said. Domestic oil prices are presently less than half of world levels of more than $100 per ton.
Russia exported about 89 million tons of crude oil outside the former Soviet Union last year, up 7 percent from 1993, according to preliminary figures of the Fuel and Energy Ministry. Total oil output for 1994 was about 314 million tons, down 11 percent from 1993.
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