Russia’s stock market rallied at the start of Friday’s trading session amid reports of a new Trump administration plan to end the war in Ukraine, raising hopes that officials in Kyiv and Moscow may soon sign a peace agreement after nearly four years of fighting.
The Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) climbed 2.4%, reaching 2,691 points at the opening bell, with most major stocks posting gains in the range of 3-5%.
Tatneft and Aeroflot led the pack, with shares of both companies rising around 4%, while Gazprom, Sberbank and Lukoil all advanced by 3%.
The rally began Thursday evening after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready for “honest” work with the United States and Europe on a reported U.S.-Russian peace proposal, which sources say President Donald Trump endorsed.
The 28-point plan calls for major territorial and military concessions by Ukraine and includes sanctions relief for Russia. Zelensky maintained that any deal must bring a “dignified peace” that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Washington signaled to Zelensky that he should accept the deal, according to Bloomberg. The Financial Times reported that U.S. officials expect him to sign it “before Thanksgiving” next Thursday as the White House works on an “aggressive” timeline to end the war by New Year.
Investment banker Yevgeny Kogan said the Russian market’s strong response to the news reflects investor confidence, with the MOEX gaining 8% over the past three days.
Kogan said the index could rise to 3,400 points if peace talks progress successfully, but warned that volatility will likely accompany any negotiations.
“This is a high-risk, high-reward scenario, and while the rally could continue, market reactions will remain sensitive to news from the talks,” he wrote in a Telegram post on Friday morning.
Some of the provisions outlined in the reported U.S.-Russian peace proposal are likely to draw criticism from Kyiv, including points that would force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia and drastically reduce the size of its armed forces.
At the same time, it is unclear whether President Vladimir Putin would agree to hand over $100 billion in frozen Russian assets to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, as stipulated in the plan.
Meanwhile, oil prices slid by 1.5% to $62.42 per barrel, extending a third consecutive day of losses. That decline follows concerns about oversupply in the global market and potential disruptions that an end to the war in Ukraine might pose.
Russia’s stock market rally came as stocks across the globe slid over growing concerns about an AI bubble. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 2.4% when the market closed on Friday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down by around 2%.
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