Moscow's Softening Stance on Saddam

When the United States rained bombs down on Iraq during Operation Desert Fox in December 1998, Moscow unleashed an angry wave of protests, withdrawing its diplomats from Washington and London and shelving the START II agreement parliament was just about to ratify.

Before that, during U.S. bombing in the 1991 Gulf War, presidential envoy Yevgeny Primakov risked life and limb to travel to Baghdad and try to help his friends there negotiate an end to the conflict.

Now, with Washington once again considering military action against Iraq, the Kremlin has taken a markedly softer stance on U.S. resolve to "deal with the problem" of Saddam Hussein, hoping this position will help preserve Russian interests in the region.

While the Foreign and Defense ministries continue to condemn the idea of an offensive against Iraq -- this time as part of Washington's war on terrorism -- Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov indicated last week that, even in the event of a strike, Russia would continue to work within the broader U.S.-led anti-terror coalition.

"It would not be expedient to issue any ultimatums to say that we would withdraw from the coalition," Ivanov said in an interview published Friday in the Times of London. "Participation in this coalition is not some present or gift to give to someone, but in our own interests."

The change comes, in part, thanks to Moscow's new, pragmatic relationship with the U.S. administration in the wake of Sept. 11.

But the Kremlin also has vested interests in Iraq. Russia hopes to collect some $6 billion to $9 billion in debt and to safeguard the lucrative interests of Russian companies working in the oil-rich nation -- and it has become increasingly clear that, under Saddam's regime, it stands little chance of doing so.

Until recently, Russia had hoped that supporting the Iraqi leader would help force the United Nations to lift its stringent sanctions, thereby opening the doors to oil fields and debt repayment. But now that Washington seems more intent than ever on toppling Saddam -- and Saddam as unwilling as ever to allow a thorough inspection of Iraqi weapons facilities -- finding a compromise seems even less likely than before. And Russia has very little leverage to change Washington's mind.

Under these circumstances, analysts said, the most Moscow can aim for in its diplomatic efforts is to ensure that a post-Saddam regime honors Iraq's debts to Russia and the contracts signed with Russian companies.

"Russia doesn't have any particular reason to support Saddam Hussein," Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Politika think tank, told Interfax on Friday.

Washington seems to have made up its mind about Iraq, Nikonov said, and if Saddam refuses to allow UN weapons inspectors back into the country, "Moscow should step up contacts with the United States, so that Russian interests get taken into account during the American operation."

"Russians will not be enthusiasts of the operation [in Iraq], but they are realizing that their opposition will reap no benefit," Dmitry Trenin, an expert with the Moscow Carnegie Center, said in a recent interview with the Christian Science Monitor.

The United States has accused Saddam of developing weapons of mass destruction, but the allegations have been difficult to prove since Iraq kicked out weapons inspectors in 1998. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan resumed talks with Iraqi officials this month to negotiate the terms for allowing inspectors to return -- something the international community, including Russia, has insisted on for years.

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov reiterated the demand last week during his three-day visit to Washington. "Baghdad must admit weapons inspectors under the UN aegis in order to stop the concern of the international community," he told reporters.

But despite its position on weapons inspectors and its frustration with Saddam, Russia still maintains relatively close ties with Baghdad.

Moscow criticized U.S. President George W. Bush's recent reference to Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil" and has blocked efforts by Washington and London to tighten UN sanctions on the Iraqi government under the oil-for-food program.

Iraqi Oil Minister Amir Muhammad Rasheed arrived in Russia on Saturday saying he wanted to "confirm Iraq's political will to strengthen relations with Russia," news agencies reported.

Russian oil companies that help Iraq export oil under the UN program now earn some $200 million to $400 million annually from the project, according to Gennady Krasovsky of the Moscow-based NIKoil brokerage.

But with tensions between Washington and Baghdad approaching boiling point, analysts said Moscow will have to maintain a tricky balancing act.

If a U.S.-led operation begins, Russia may diplomatically call for an end to the violence but it "will not quarrel with the United States over Iraq," said Ivan Safranchuk, an expert with the Center for Defense Information.

Trenin agreed: "[The Kremlin] has invested so much in this pro-American, pro-West posture, if it opposes the U.S. on a marginal issue like Iraq, that investment will go up in smoke. And what for?"

At the same time, Russia will have to be careful not to damage its reputation or lose its influence in the Arab world.

Moscow can neither "completely passively" support the United States nor "completely hopelessly" try to hinder its Iraq operation, Safranchuk said; otherwise, Arab nations, which have opposed a military strike against Saddam, will view Russia either as a traitor or as a weakling.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is in the middle of an 11-nation tour of Arab countries, trying to whip up support for military moves against Saddam. Saudi Arabia became the sixth stop on Cheney's itinerary Saturday and the sixth nation to reject a tougher U.S. stance on Iraq, The Associated Press reported.

Experts have said that even if the United States does win the necessary backing to oust Saddam, arranging the operation would take months.

In the meantime, Russia will try to cover its diplomatic bases and to up the chances for a payback.

In addition to Iraq's state debt, Russia has significant commercial interests there. A 75 percent Russian consortium led by LUKoil has been sitting anxiously on a 1997 contract to explore oil fields in southern Iraq, unable to profit from the project until sanctions on Iraqi oil exports are lifted. Krasovsky of NIKoil said Friday that rough estimates place the value of the 5.1 billion barrels of oil to be extracted during the 23-year project at around $60 billion to $70 billion. Chances are, Russia will have a hard time getting any of this money in the near future.

But Trenin suggested that Moscow had come to understand that a hostile attitude toward Washington would only hurt those chances further: "The Russians are better aware of their limitations. ... You only get your money if you play along with the U.S. You will get nothing if you oppose them."