Khasbulatov's Mixed Omens

Dressed in a typically natty white suit, sporting a Palestinian scarf and flashing his trademark crooked smile, Ruslan Khasbulatov strode back into the spotlight last week.The event he chose was the anniversary party of the militant Palestinian newspaper, Al-Kods, which is publishing his latest book. It could be construed as a political act, but then again it may not be.Is this the first step back into the fray of the man who ran the Supreme Soviet's battles with Boris Yeltsin? My guess is that he is still mulling the question over and watching events back home in Chechnya very closely.So far, since he came out of jail in February, Khasbulatov has said he is finished with politics, that he will be content to sit at his desk, smoking his pipe and teaching economics. At the moment he is back at the Plekhanov Institute in Moscow supervising a doctoral student from Chad. He is a man in poor health who fought two years of nerve-jangling political battles and ended up behind bars. Logic says he needs a rest.In January Khasbulatov's brother told me, "I don't think Ruslan wants to resume a political career either in Chechnya or in Russia." And yet, Khasbulatov was f?ted all over Chechnya when he went back in February. The Chechnya he saw is in a dire state. The economy has been plundered by President Dzhokhar Dudayev and his gun-toting comrades. The opposition is demoralized.Khasbulatov has undoubtedly heard calls to step forward and lead the opposition against Dudayev, a man he loathes. In his most recent interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the former speaker did seem to be leaving the door open."Of course I would like to play a peacekeeping role both in Chechnya and in the Northern Caucasus," he said, although he said his activities back home were "civic" not "political."Khasbulatov's enemies are definitely taking him seriously.On Saturday Dudayev stripped him of his right to live in Chechnya and included him in what was in effect a "Wanted" notice for five key opposition figures.In Moscow the specter of Khasbulatov seems to have panicked the Kremlin. According to Sergei Shakhrai, recently fired as nationalities minister, Moscow's whole Chechen policy has shifted because of the Khasbulatov Factor.Shakhrai's strategy in dealing with Chechnya leant heavily on the Chechen opposition. His basic plan was that Chechnya should agree to a treaty on autonomy similar to the one Moscow signed with Tatarstan in February. The republic would hold elections to the Russian parliament and if all went well the opposition would defeat Dudayev.But two voices in Yeltsin's ear, say the Kremlin-watchers, said this policy was going nowhere. They were Sergei Filatov, the president's chief of staff and Vladimir Shumeiko, the speaker of the Federation Council, whose fingers now reach into an impressive number of pies. They said Yeltsin should talk directly with Dudayev. And when Khasbulatov was released they won their case and Shakhrai was removed. They could argue that Shakhrai was pumping up an opposition which might vault the ex-speaker, Yeltsin's former enemy number one, back into parliament. This is the calculation Khasbulatov must be pondering himself. He knows that if he wants to re-enter politics it will probably have to be in Chechnya. As a Chechen he would have very little chance of a major career in Russian federal politics again.But even in Chechnya the omens are mixed. He has not lived there since infancy when he and his family were deported to Kazakhstan. He is a Russified academic, who made his career in Russia. A hero's welcome for a famous son is one thing, converting that into national leadership is another.Ruslan Malsagov, a member of the Chechen opposition, said he thought Khasbulatov's triumphant tour was just a focus for people's anger against the government.Even Khasbulatov's cousin said he thought Ruslan would have problems winning over ordinary Chechens, who are still surprisingly loyal to Dudayev. Ruslan was too much the professor, he said. Ordinary people, himself included, had problems understanding him. And if he does come back, tweed-jacketed Professor Khasbulatov won't find it so easy to rise by stealth. He will face real hustings and bright television lights. The great tactician may yet decide his desk is a cozier place after all.