BALA-MURGHAB, Western Afghanistan -- For the front-line commanders of Afghanistan's anti-Taliban alliance dug in among the rolling hills of Badghis province, the spring flowering of the wild poppies and the rivers swelling with melted snow signal the start of what could be the most decisive summer of fighting since the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1988.
As the high passes of Hindu Kush again become accessible to heavy armor, both the radical Islamic Taliban militia -- which currently controls nearly three-fourths of the country -- and the uneasy alliance that opposes it are preparing for the endgame of the Taliban's meteoric three-year rise from radical Kandahar students to possible masters of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan's neighbors are eyeing developments nervously. If the Taliban succeeds in its stated aim of overrunning the north, Russia fears that the resulting flood of refugees and fleeing armed groups could destabilize neighboring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and set Central Asia ablaze with a wave of dangerous Islamic fundamentalism.
General Andrei Nikolayev, commander of 20,000 Russian border troops stationed along the Afghan-Tajik border, warned recently that 100,000 refugees are waiting to cross into Tajikistan. Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov claimed that more than 1 million refugees could pour across the border if the Taliban advances northward. A huge influx of Afghan refugees, many of them armed, could destroy the fragile peace brokered by Russia between Rakhmonov and the Islamist opposition after four years of civil war.
"This situation worries the leadership of Russia and the Central Asian states," Nikolayev told Reuters, adding that Russia intends to maintain its strategic military presence in the region.
On Afghanistan's western flank, Iran also fears a Taliban triumph could create a radical Sunni Moslem state that could threaten regional security, and it is supporting the anti-Taliban forces of Ishmael Khan, the former governor of Herat province deposed by the Taliban last year. Large supplies of Iranian-made anti-tank mines and Kalashnikov rifles were being delivered by helicopter last month to Ismael Khan's forces in Badghis in preparation for the expected spring fighting.
Ahmed Shah Masoud, the former Mujahedin commander who is currently allied with General Abdul Rashid Dostum against the Taliban, announced in mid-April that the alliance soon would launch a united front offensive after the Eid Islamic holiday. The Taliban's leader, the half-blind Sheikh Mohammed Omar, also vowed in a rare interview last month that his goal was to bring the whole of north Afghanistan under Taliban control.
The northern alliance currently faces its opponents along the Hindu Kush line, which stretches from the mountains of Badakhshan in the northeast to the hills of Badghis on the border with Turkmenistan in the west.
The key crossing points of the Hindu Kush, the strategic Salang and Shibar passes, are heavily defended, and any Taliban advances would be severely complicated by near-impassable gorges and mountainous terrain.
Badghis, on the other hand, is easier territory to advance through, but a potential Taliban armored offensive could be hampered by fresh mine fields and a division of 1,500 heavily armed ethnic Uzbek cavalrymen, who enjoy a tactical advantage over tanks in this hilly terrain.
Fighting on the western front is being closely watched by neighboring Turkmenistan, the only Central Asian nation not to have condemned the Taliban.
Alliance leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum accused Turkmenistan at an April press conference of connivance in alleged Taliban raids through Turkmen territory in order to outflank his forces, a claim repeated by Khan.
Khan, who has close ties with Iran, alleged that Turkmenistan is collaborating with the Taliban in order to build a planned $2.5 billion gas pipeline from Turkmen oil fields to Pakistani seaports via Taliban-held south Afghanistan.
Khan insisted, however, that former mujahedin comrades now living in Taliban areas would mount a "ceaseless campaign of sabotage" against the pipeline unless the profits are shared with the north.
"It is wrong to negotiate only with one side," said Khan, whose troops are composed of refugee fighters from Herat sworn to fight their way back home "to their last drop of blood."
"If the pipeline is built, they will have to put an armed post at every meter to stop it being blown up," he said.
Khan claimed he was planning a major counter-offensive on Herat, capital of southwestern Afghanistan, using loyal supporters inside the city as a fifth column to sabotage the Taliban from within, as well as 5,000 fighters drawn from Herati refugees currently in camps across the Iranian border to attack from the southwest of the city.
If Khan succeeds in retaking Herat, the Taliban's control over the southern plain would be severely weakened and a Taliban withdrawal from its northern outpost in Kabul could even be precipitated if the Herat offensive is coordinated with a southward push by Masoud, who controls the mountainous areas above the Afghan capital.
The International Committee of the Red Cross reported last week that thousands of refugees were fleeing their homes after escalating fighting in Badghis.
As the high passes of Hindu Kush again become accessible to heavy armor, both the radical Islamic Taliban militia -- which currently controls nearly three-fourths of the country -- and the uneasy alliance that opposes it are preparing for the endgame of the Taliban's meteoric three-year rise from radical Kandahar students to possible masters of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan's neighbors are eyeing developments nervously. If the Taliban succeeds in its stated aim of overrunning the north, Russia fears that the resulting flood of refugees and fleeing armed groups could destabilize neighboring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and set Central Asia ablaze with a wave of dangerous Islamic fundamentalism.
General Andrei Nikolayev, commander of 20,000 Russian border troops stationed along the Afghan-Tajik border, warned recently that 100,000 refugees are waiting to cross into Tajikistan. Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov claimed that more than 1 million refugees could pour across the border if the Taliban advances northward. A huge influx of Afghan refugees, many of them armed, could destroy the fragile peace brokered by Russia between Rakhmonov and the Islamist opposition after four years of civil war.
"This situation worries the leadership of Russia and the Central Asian states," Nikolayev told Reuters, adding that Russia intends to maintain its strategic military presence in the region.
On Afghanistan's western flank, Iran also fears a Taliban triumph could create a radical Sunni Moslem state that could threaten regional security, and it is supporting the anti-Taliban forces of Ishmael Khan, the former governor of Herat province deposed by the Taliban last year. Large supplies of Iranian-made anti-tank mines and Kalashnikov rifles were being delivered by helicopter last month to Ismael Khan's forces in Badghis in preparation for the expected spring fighting.
Ahmed Shah Masoud, the former Mujahedin commander who is currently allied with General Abdul Rashid Dostum against the Taliban, announced in mid-April that the alliance soon would launch a united front offensive after the Eid Islamic holiday. The Taliban's leader, the half-blind Sheikh Mohammed Omar, also vowed in a rare interview last month that his goal was to bring the whole of north Afghanistan under Taliban control.
The northern alliance currently faces its opponents along the Hindu Kush line, which stretches from the mountains of Badakhshan in the northeast to the hills of Badghis on the border with Turkmenistan in the west.
The key crossing points of the Hindu Kush, the strategic Salang and Shibar passes, are heavily defended, and any Taliban advances would be severely complicated by near-impassable gorges and mountainous terrain.
Badghis, on the other hand, is easier territory to advance through, but a potential Taliban armored offensive could be hampered by fresh mine fields and a division of 1,500 heavily armed ethnic Uzbek cavalrymen, who enjoy a tactical advantage over tanks in this hilly terrain.
Fighting on the western front is being closely watched by neighboring Turkmenistan, the only Central Asian nation not to have condemned the Taliban.
Alliance leader General Abdul Rashid Dostum accused Turkmenistan at an April press conference of connivance in alleged Taliban raids through Turkmen territory in order to outflank his forces, a claim repeated by Khan.
Khan, who has close ties with Iran, alleged that Turkmenistan is collaborating with the Taliban in order to build a planned $2.5 billion gas pipeline from Turkmen oil fields to Pakistani seaports via Taliban-held south Afghanistan.
Khan insisted, however, that former mujahedin comrades now living in Taliban areas would mount a "ceaseless campaign of sabotage" against the pipeline unless the profits are shared with the north.
"It is wrong to negotiate only with one side," said Khan, whose troops are composed of refugee fighters from Herat sworn to fight their way back home "to their last drop of blood."
"If the pipeline is built, they will have to put an armed post at every meter to stop it being blown up," he said.
Khan claimed he was planning a major counter-offensive on Herat, capital of southwestern Afghanistan, using loyal supporters inside the city as a fifth column to sabotage the Taliban from within, as well as 5,000 fighters drawn from Herati refugees currently in camps across the Iranian border to attack from the southwest of the city.
If Khan succeeds in retaking Herat, the Taliban's control over the southern plain would be severely weakened and a Taliban withdrawal from its northern outpost in Kabul could even be precipitated if the Herat offensive is coordinated with a southward push by Masoud, who controls the mountainous areas above the Afghan capital.
The International Committee of the Red Cross reported last week that thousands of refugees were fleeing their homes after escalating fighting in Badghis.
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