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Russia’s Population May Drop by 12M in 15 Years – Rosstat

Sergei Bobylev / TASS

Russia’s population could drop by more than 12 million by 2035, the national statistics office said in its annual forecast published Friday.

Russia’s overall population dropped for the first time in a decade last year, totaling 146.8 million as migration inflows hit record lows. It totaled 146.7 million so far in 2019, the State Statistics Service Rosstat said this month, as Russia experienced its highest natural population decline in 11 years.

Here are the three population scenarios that Rosstat predicted for the next 15 years. In all cases, Russia’s natural population is expected to continue to decline — meaning deaths will continue to outnumber live births.

Optimistic scenario: 150.1 million. Natural population is expected to slow its contraction from nearly 250,000 next year to 21,300 in 2035. Migration is expected to grow from under 340,000 next year to more than 385,000 in 2035.

Baseline scenario: 142.9 million. Natural population is expected to decline by more than 350,000 next year and almost 400,000 in 2035. Migration is expected to drop slightly from almost 265,000 next year to around 264,000 in 2035.

Worst-case scenario: 134.2 million. Natural population is expected to contract by 484,400 next year and near 1 million people by 2035. Migration is expected to drop from almost 191,000 to under 16,000 arrivals in 2035.

All the figures were revised downward from 2018, when Rosstat forecast Russia’s population to grow to 153.2 million under an optimistic scenario, 144 million under a baseline scenario and 138.1 million under the worst-case scenario.

Rosstat will not publish its forecast next year because of the 2020 census, the state-run TASS news agency reports.

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