For Romania, Stability Is Not Enough

BUCHAREST -- Romania has achieved a measure of economic stability after several years of flux, but faster privatization and restructuring of the ex-communist country's bloated industry could bring a lasting recovery, analysts say.


"Romania's stability on a macro-economic level will not last long without changes in the real economy," said Ilie Serbanescu, a leading economic analyst and vice president of the Romanian Economics Society. "It will be wasted, and past efforts, especially from the central bank, will prove useless."


The National Bank has run a tighter monetary policy since last December, paralleled by firmer government steps in the fiscal sector, in line with an International Monetary Fund loan accord. This has slowed inflation from an annual rate of almost 300 percent last December to 180 percent now, and given a relative stability to Romania's leu currency.


Consumer price inflation over January-May slowed to a monthly average of 6 percent from around 12 percent in 1993. The inflation rate is expected to drop further to a monthly 3 or 4 percent in the second half of this year, to put 12-month inflation at around 75 percent in December.


Under a 1994-95 $700 million loan accord with the IMF, the National Bank has promised to slash year-on-year inflation to two digits in 1994, to pave the way for rational growth and to ease the price nightmare of Romania's 23 million citizens.


The leu currency, now trading at an official rate of 1,688 to the dollar, has floated up and down within narrow margins since April, when the exchange rate was liberalized. Local dealers expect the trend to continue.


"These are commendable achievements," Serbanescu said.


But local economists argue that a relatively stable leu has taken exports down in recent months.


Romania, which pledged to resume export-led economic growth this year, saw May exports at $378.6 million, 20.5 percent down from the previous month, when they had dropped by around 4 percent from March.


"Macro-economic stability is not enough, and at the first meaningful signs of a more relaxed central bank monetary policy, Romania will slip into hyperinflation and the leu's exchange rate will depreciate significantly," Serbanescu said.


The National Bank has already started cautiously to relax its monetary policy by cutting rates on overdraft credits to an annual 200 percent in May from 250 percent. Its rates on refinancing credits at weekly auctions also dropped to 99 percent last week from 187.5 percent in April.


A relaxed monetary policy should benefit the sound part of the economy, with credits going to profitable enterprises as a means to boost production, economists say.


Industrial output is forecast to grow by 2 percent this year and Romania expects its gross domestic product to rise by 1.5 percent this year based on the growth of industry and farming.


Romania has denationalized only 550 state enterprises, mostly small ones, since it issued a first list of companies to go private last spring. Some 5,500 enterprises, including all the giants, are still state-owned. Some economists say privatization has been delayed due to domestic capital shortages and thin interest on the part of foreign investors. Others say it is resisted by communist-era managers who feel that their power and perks are threatened.


Foreign investment, which stood at $217.2 million last year, has reached $172 million in the first six months of 1994.


But investors remain wary because of foggy areas in Romanian business laws, corruption, red tape, and doubts about the left-wing government's understanding of the free market.


The government plans to launch mass privatization next month with Romanians getting a 30 percent stake in 3,000 state firms in exchange for pre-share vouchers, doled out in 1992, and coupons which are yet to be distributed.