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In the runup to the first face-to-face meeting between Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama, expectations are running high in both Moscow and Washington that the meeting will finally usher in an era of serious constructive engagement in U.S.-Russia relations. Since Obama's inauguration, the atmosphere of the relationship has significantly improved.
On Jan. 29, Medvedev sent Obama a six-page letter outlining Russia's readiness to engage the United States on the entire global agenda -- from nuclear cuts to Afghanistan and North Korea. Obama responded on Feb. 9 with a less profusely worded but equally constructive message signaling the new U.S. resolve to engage Russia that Vice President Joseph Biden made public with his "hitting the reset button" speech in Munich.
The first substantive meeting between Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton this month went extremely well, according to the participants on both sides, with both Lavrov and Clinton pushing aides to work hard to start talks on a follow-on to the START treaty ahead of a Obama-Medvedev meeting on April 1.
Obama and Clinton have entrusted this issue to Rose Gottemoeller, nominated as assistant secretary of state for verification and compliance. This is a clear signal to Moscow of Washington's serious intentions. Another signal that was not lost upon the Kremlin was Clinton's appointment of Dan Fried, a former assistant secretary for Europe and a U.S. official despised by Moscow, to the glorious job of resettling Guantanamo prisoners.
Obama left the door open to canceling U.S. missile defense deployments in Central Europe, although his linking of missile defense to Russia's help in neutralizing Iranian nuclear threat is unworkable. Obama's support for the NATO open-door policy is palpable because the White House has put Ukraine's and Georgia's membership bids on the back burner, at least until more cohesive governments emerge there. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's call for "setting the alliance's borders" is likely to close the debate on NATO enlargement to Russia's satisfaction.
In Moscow, the desire to work with Obama's team is growing even as fears of being "duped" fuel suspicion. Moscow's priority seems to be to hold out for substantive changes in the U.S. position as proof of a genuine U.S. desire to take Russia's concerns into account. This stance could squander a strategic opportunity.
Vladimir Frolov is president of LEFF Group, a government-relations and PR company.
