For Russia and the recent Soviet republics, as well as for Western observers, the main organizer of the unprecedented sharp turn in the country's economy has been Yegor Gaidar, the 36-year-old doctor of economics who was all but unheard of just one year ago. Boris Yeltsin, who decided, after some hesitation to take upon himself yet another post -- that of Prime Minister -- offered Gaidar not only the position of First Deputy Prime Minister, but also, in November 1991, the chance to decide the new composition of the Russian government.
Gaidar is far from the most important of the Yeltsin's team, and certainly not the closest to the president. In addition, he has not yet been confirmed by parliament as head of government and is still only "acting" prime minister. However it is Yegor Gaidar who has become for the whole world the symbol of reform and the "number two" man in the Russian administration. One of the Western papers dubbed him "the friendly face of Russia's reforms". The Moscow magazine "New Times" enthusiastically writes: "Gaidar has tipped over the hourglass. What he has begun can no longer be stopped". Gaidar's admirers see this as his great contribution, while his opponents are unsparing in their censure.
Although Gaidar was one of the last to join Yeltsin's circle, he might be one of the first to leave. The fruits of Gaidar's reforms are there for all to see: 10- and 100-fold increases in prices on goods-and services, a 20-25 percent fall in production in less than a year, hyperinflation, a cash deficit -- there's not enough money to pay even wages and pensions -- business debts numbering in the trillions, cuts in social programs, an unheard of fall of the ruble, concealment of many millions of dollars in Western banks by businessmen, shady financial dealings, general corruption in government and a rapid rise in the crime rate, a balance of trade deficit, a rise in internal and external debt, a decline in the standard of living by a factor of two or even three, a 50 percent decrease in internal trade, a fall in productivity, a disastrous situation in health care, education, science and culture.
And although Gaidar, according to journal-ists, works 18-20 hours a day trying to "bring capitalism to post-Bolshevik Russia" and "breathe a feeling of optimism into society", he himself is beginning to understand ever more clearly that the abstract postulates of Western economic theory he has accepted just do not work in Russia.
Ambition, excusable in an academic theorist, is unforgivable in a professional working politician. It was the precipitous reorientation towards the introduction of capitalist market mechanisms and adoption of Western expert's recommendations that were the main reasons for Gaidar's failures and gross miscalculations when he became de facto head of Yeltsin's new government. Many of Gaidar's individual proposals were reasonable and right, but the attempt to include them in a hastily concocted plan for the shift from socialism, to capitalism doomed them to failure.
Gaidar publicly professed his credo over two years ago. "In economics", he wrote in Pravda, "you have to pay for everything. The time when the economy could have been stabilized without severe and unpopular measures has passed. It is frightening to free prices given the present growth in the cash flow. But it can be done all at once. All you have to do is squeeze your eyes shut and leap into the great unknown".
Of course, anyone can shut his eyes and leap wherever he wants -- that's his own business. But if he takes his wife and children with him, without their consent, it's a crime. and if he pushes a great nation over the edge -- let the reader himself characterize that action.
The future of the Gaidar team is not difficult to predict, since, as Pravda so graphically put it: "If this government manages to keep afloat, the rest of us will drown". This prediction was clear a year ago. No matter how things develop, there are difficult times ahead for our country. It's not likely that any other team has a miracle cure. But at the very least we must open our eyes and stop throwing ourselves into one unknown after another. To paraphrase Gaidar: The time when we can still avoid a social cataclysm is disappearing rapidly. What will happen if we let that time run out is too frightening even to think about.
Gaidar is far from the most important of the Yeltsin's team, and certainly not the closest to the president. In addition, he has not yet been confirmed by parliament as head of government and is still only "acting" prime minister. However it is Yegor Gaidar who has become for the whole world the symbol of reform and the "number two" man in the Russian administration. One of the Western papers dubbed him "the friendly face of Russia's reforms". The Moscow magazine "New Times" enthusiastically writes: "Gaidar has tipped over the hourglass. What he has begun can no longer be stopped". Gaidar's admirers see this as his great contribution, while his opponents are unsparing in their censure.
Although Gaidar was one of the last to join Yeltsin's circle, he might be one of the first to leave. The fruits of Gaidar's reforms are there for all to see: 10- and 100-fold increases in prices on goods-and services, a 20-25 percent fall in production in less than a year, hyperinflation, a cash deficit -- there's not enough money to pay even wages and pensions -- business debts numbering in the trillions, cuts in social programs, an unheard of fall of the ruble, concealment of many millions of dollars in Western banks by businessmen, shady financial dealings, general corruption in government and a rapid rise in the crime rate, a balance of trade deficit, a rise in internal and external debt, a decline in the standard of living by a factor of two or even three, a 50 percent decrease in internal trade, a fall in productivity, a disastrous situation in health care, education, science and culture.
And although Gaidar, according to journal-ists, works 18-20 hours a day trying to "bring capitalism to post-Bolshevik Russia" and "breathe a feeling of optimism into society", he himself is beginning to understand ever more clearly that the abstract postulates of Western economic theory he has accepted just do not work in Russia.
Ambition, excusable in an academic theorist, is unforgivable in a professional working politician. It was the precipitous reorientation towards the introduction of capitalist market mechanisms and adoption of Western expert's recommendations that were the main reasons for Gaidar's failures and gross miscalculations when he became de facto head of Yeltsin's new government. Many of Gaidar's individual proposals were reasonable and right, but the attempt to include them in a hastily concocted plan for the shift from socialism, to capitalism doomed them to failure.
Gaidar publicly professed his credo over two years ago. "In economics", he wrote in Pravda, "you have to pay for everything. The time when the economy could have been stabilized without severe and unpopular measures has passed. It is frightening to free prices given the present growth in the cash flow. But it can be done all at once. All you have to do is squeeze your eyes shut and leap into the great unknown".
Of course, anyone can shut his eyes and leap wherever he wants -- that's his own business. But if he takes his wife and children with him, without their consent, it's a crime. and if he pushes a great nation over the edge -- let the reader himself characterize that action.
The future of the Gaidar team is not difficult to predict, since, as Pravda so graphically put it: "If this government manages to keep afloat, the rest of us will drown". This prediction was clear a year ago. No matter how things develop, there are difficult times ahead for our country. It's not likely that any other team has a miracle cure. But at the very least we must open our eyes and stop throwing ourselves into one unknown after another. To paraphrase Gaidar: The time when we can still avoid a social cataclysm is disappearing rapidly. What will happen if we let that time run out is too frightening even to think about.
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