Russia Must Heed Belarus Poll Results

The overwhelming success of Alexander Lukashenko in the first round of the Belarussian presidential election reflects the strength of populist politicians at times of discontent and has disturbing implications for the electoral chances of Russia's own populist demagogue Vladimir Zhirinovsky.Life in Belarus is for most people considerably worse than in Russia, with 50 percent inflation compared to 8 percent, and virtually no development in goods and services since the Soviet era. For most Belarussians, independence brought no sense of statehood nor national identity, only a new flag, a national anthem that even the politicians have failed to master, and long lines for vodka.When they voted for Lukashenko, they were not voting for policies. A man who promises the moon need not explain how he is going to provide it. They were voting to turn the clock back, to return to a past that time has embellished with a rosy glow and that is seen by many as an era of abundance and prosperity.So how close a comparison can be made between Lukashenko and Zhirinovsky? When the former was asked about this last week he conceded that they shared views on many issues, even though he had no aspirations to wash his boots in the Indian Ocean.But like Zhirinovsky, Lukashenko favors the territorial restoration of the Soviet Union. He too promises tough measures to stamp out crime and corruption -- and intends to begin with the imprisonment of two of his main political rivals. Both Lukashenko and Zhirinovsky pledge to restore the prestige of the armed forces. Both oppose radical economic reform and both say they will provide jobs, better wages and housing for all. Neither has deemed it necessary to spell out how this can be achieved.The greatest difference between them is that Lukashenko is in Belarus while Zhirinovsky is in Russia. What Lukashenko says or does will almost certainly -- assuming he wins the second round in July -- affect the lives of the 10.4 million people living in Belarus. But it is unlikely to make much difference to the rest of us.Zhirinovsky is of course another matter, or would be if he managed to win Lukashenko's credibility. The indications are that he is still some way short of doing so. But life for many people in rural and provincial Russia cannot be said to be much better than the misery of existence in Belarus. The election of Lukashenko showed how fertile the ground of discontent can be for those of his ilk. Should July's second-round poll go the same way, the people of Russia will be able to see at close hand what happens when such people come to power.