For a country whose markets were among the worst hit last fall, the 13th annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, it seems, couldn't be coming at a better time.
While an oil price of $65 a barrel may have been no reason to celebrate in 2008, the backdrop for this year's forum appears to be increasingly optimistic as top government and business leaders focus on the recent gains by Russian equities that have far outstripped global competitors.
Still, the government is likely to keep its pride in check, forum participants said.
"The Russians got a real reality check. They've been hammered," said Andrew Kuchins, a director with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a participant at this year's forum.
"I think there was an opinion in the government that commodity prices would stay high indefinitely," said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog and a speaker at this year's forum. But he added that -during the past nine months' reckoning, the government has become "much more pragmatic."
Russian leaders won't be able to sell the country as an island of stability, as they did before the global turmoil reached Russia last fall, but they do have some numbers to be proud of. The MICEX Index has surged 135 percent since the dog days of October, while the RTS Index has climbed 134 percent since January.
The three-day forum, which starts Thursday, promises to take a different tone than previous years, but its main goal -- to promote foreign investment in Russia -- remains as pertinent as ever.
President Dmitry Medvedev will take center stage without Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for the second year in a row and participate in discussions with leaders such as Philippine President Macapagal Arroyo, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schr??der and former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Putin, who was in St. Petersburg on Tuesday for a Nissan plant opening, will spend part of the forum on a solo trip to Finland, where he is meeting with the country's president and prime minister.
David Nicholas, a spokesman for BP in London, declined to comment on the TNK-BP shareholders struggle that overshadowed last year's forum and how it would affect the company's role at the meeting this year, saying only that the forum was important for BP's relations in Russia. "It's an opportunity to meet the people we work with and, obviously, we're a major investor in Russia," he said.
For potash producer Uralkali, which suffered its own market setbacks last fall when Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin reopened a 2006 mine flood investigation, the forum will be "of special importance" and an "opportunity to exchange ideas about how to tackle the global financial and economic crisis," said vice president for strategic development Mikhail Antonov. "We believe that the international nature of the event will allow us to benefit from expert opinion on the means to stabilize the world economy and in particular the best approach to managing the food crisis," he said in an e-mailed statement.
Forum organizers said 19 governors and a number of deputy governors have confirmed their participation, but several regional administrations said Tuesday that their governors had decided not to go either because of conflicting engagements or for financial reasons.
Vladimir Governor Nikolai Vinogradov chose not to attend this year because the entrance fees were too high, a source in his administration said. "They have doubled the cost this year. It's absolutely unacceptable," the source said.
While the governors don't have to pay for their own participation, they may have to pay for certain aides' admittance depending on what the organizers' committee decides on a case-by-case basis, a forum representative said.
The entrance fee, which costs 100,000 rubles ($3,272) plus a value-added tax, rose to 150,000 rubles after June 1. "If the hotel is an additional 70,000 rubles and the governor were to bring several of his aides with him, then we wouldn't have any money left to go anywhere else this year," the Vladimir source said.
Other governors blamed their absence simply on time conflicts. Kaliningrad Governor Georgy Boos, for instance, will be in Italy discussing cooperation between Italian and Kaliningrad furniture producers, an aide said.
Attending the conference will be some of the stars of the past year's financial drama, such as Citi CEO Vikram Pandit and Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who first predicted the recession in 2005. On the Russian front, Sberbank CEO German Gref, Onexim Group president Mikhail Prokhorov and Rusnano chief Anatoly Chubais will be in attendance, as will Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and First Deputy Prime Minsters Igor Shuvalov and Viktor Zubkov.
For these leaders who make it to the forum, the euphoria of the current stocks rally is likely to be tempered by at least some sense of the current reality, said Gavrilenkov, the economist. While Russia might be a hot investment spot once again, market participants know that another correction could be right around the corner. Investors "understand that this rally may be followed by another adjustment. At this point there are no illusions," Gavrilenkov said.
While an oil price of $65 a barrel may have been no reason to celebrate in 2008, the backdrop for this year's forum appears to be increasingly optimistic as top government and business leaders focus on the recent gains by Russian equities that have far outstripped global competitors.
Still, the government is likely to keep its pride in check, forum participants said.
"The Russians got a real reality check. They've been hammered," said Andrew Kuchins, a director with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a participant at this year's forum.
"I think there was an opinion in the government that commodity prices would stay high indefinitely," said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist at Troika Dialog and a speaker at this year's forum. But he added that -during the past nine months' reckoning, the government has become "much more pragmatic."
Russian leaders won't be able to sell the country as an island of stability, as they did before the global turmoil reached Russia last fall, but they do have some numbers to be proud of. The MICEX Index has surged 135 percent since the dog days of October, while the RTS Index has climbed 134 percent since January.
The three-day forum, which starts Thursday, promises to take a different tone than previous years, but its main goal -- to promote foreign investment in Russia -- remains as pertinent as ever.
President Dmitry Medvedev will take center stage without Prime Minister Vladimir Putin for the second year in a row and participate in discussions with leaders such as Philippine President Macapagal Arroyo, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schr??der and former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Putin, who was in St. Petersburg on Tuesday for a Nissan plant opening, will spend part of the forum on a solo trip to Finland, where he is meeting with the country's president and prime minister.
David Nicholas, a spokesman for BP in London, declined to comment on the TNK-BP shareholders struggle that overshadowed last year's forum and how it would affect the company's role at the meeting this year, saying only that the forum was important for BP's relations in Russia. "It's an opportunity to meet the people we work with and, obviously, we're a major investor in Russia," he said.
For potash producer Uralkali, which suffered its own market setbacks last fall when Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin reopened a 2006 mine flood investigation, the forum will be "of special importance" and an "opportunity to exchange ideas about how to tackle the global financial and economic crisis," said vice president for strategic development Mikhail Antonov. "We believe that the international nature of the event will allow us to benefit from expert opinion on the means to stabilize the world economy and in particular the best approach to managing the food crisis," he said in an e-mailed statement.
Forum organizers said 19 governors and a number of deputy governors have confirmed their participation, but several regional administrations said Tuesday that their governors had decided not to go either because of conflicting engagements or for financial reasons.
Vladimir Governor Nikolai Vinogradov chose not to attend this year because the entrance fees were too high, a source in his administration said. "They have doubled the cost this year. It's absolutely unacceptable," the source said.
While the governors don't have to pay for their own participation, they may have to pay for certain aides' admittance depending on what the organizers' committee decides on a case-by-case basis, a forum representative said.
The entrance fee, which costs 100,000 rubles ($3,272) plus a value-added tax, rose to 150,000 rubles after June 1. "If the hotel is an additional 70,000 rubles and the governor were to bring several of his aides with him, then we wouldn't have any money left to go anywhere else this year," the Vladimir source said.
Other governors blamed their absence simply on time conflicts. Kaliningrad Governor Georgy Boos, for instance, will be in Italy discussing cooperation between Italian and Kaliningrad furniture producers, an aide said.
Attending the conference will be some of the stars of the past year's financial drama, such as Citi CEO Vikram Pandit and Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who first predicted the recession in 2005. On the Russian front, Sberbank CEO German Gref, Onexim Group president Mikhail Prokhorov and Rusnano chief Anatoly Chubais will be in attendance, as will Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and First Deputy Prime Minsters Igor Shuvalov and Viktor Zubkov.
For these leaders who make it to the forum, the euphoria of the current stocks rally is likely to be tempered by at least some sense of the current reality, said Gavrilenkov, the economist. While Russia might be a hot investment spot once again, market participants know that another correction could be right around the corner. Investors "understand that this rally may be followed by another adjustment. At this point there are no illusions," Gavrilenkov said.
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