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UnwelcomeVictory for Republicans

After months of prognoses by pundits that Democrats in the U.S. Congress were facing a disaster, American voters confirmed the analyses in stunning fashion this week.


For the first time in the lifetime of most Americans, both houses of Congress will be in the hands of Republicans. The last time that happened, Elvis Presley was a budding star and the Beatles were probably still in short pants.


Although foreign policy was not the focus of the election, the arrival of such a revamped Congress is bound to have significant repercussions on Russian-American relations.


The ascent of Jesse Helms to the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is likely to produce an unwelcome slowdown in assistance to Russia. Although the president still has the main control of foreign policy and Bill Clinton has put his money on President Boris Yeltsin, Helms is a past master in using parliamentary tactics to block policies he opposes.


His visceral distrust of anything Soviet has not been dispelled by the disappearance of the Soviet Union, so his rise is sure to play a key role in Republican plans to push expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe and oppose the Bosnian Serbs. Both moves would be at loggerheads with Moscow.


The era of bipartisanship in U.S. foreign policy has been fading at the edges for years but it is likely to take a quantum leap backward if Helms staffers, famed for their outspokenness, are encouraged by their leader.


First indications are that they could have carte blanche. A Helms aide, referring to the Democrats, said after the election results were in: "We're going to screw 'em whenever they turn around. We're going to do to them what they did to us for years."


If that mood prevails, Washington will become bogged down in gridlock, mainly in domestic policy but with repercussions for foreign policy also.


During most of his first two years, Clinton seemed ill at ease in the foreign arena. His recent successes in Haiti and the Middle East had no noticeable impact on changing his image with the electorate, so it is likely that he will choose to fight his battles mostly on the domestic front. Why waste valuable time and points on foreign policy that gets him nowhere with the voters?


If Helms' sharp partisanship becomes de rigueur in the Senate's attitude toward Moscow, Russia had best prepare for a rougher period in relations with the United States than the past two years. That may prove difficult to control amid the surge of nationalism here.


Last September's feelgood "Bill-and-Boris summit" could well be the last of its kind.

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