New Team Is Decidedly A Mixed Bag

There is only one type of presidential decree that is immediately, rigorously and completely implemented: those concerning appointments to or dismissals from the highest posts in government.


The current changes in government, the most sweeping since 1991, continued this week with the appointments of Yevgeny Yasin to the post of economics minister and two new deputy prime ministers -- one to oversee international economic ties and one for economic cooperation with the CIS. Both of the latter positions are essentially new posts that have been introduced as part of the current restructuring and, possibly, with particular people in mind.


The new deputy prime minister for international economic ties, Oleg Davydov, is already pretty well-known. For more than a year he has directed the Foreign Trade Ministry. He replaced Sergei Glazyev at that post after Glazyev resigned last fall. Before that, Davydov had been Glazyev's deputy and, still earlier, he worked at Gasprom, giving rise to speculation that he is a supporter of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin.


However, other parts of Davydov's biography are even more interesting. For many years Davydov worked for the Soviet State Committee on Foreign Trade. Those not familiar with the workings of the Soviet system might think that Davydov has been involved in foreign trade since long before perestroika and "shock therapy." This, however, is not really the case.


The Soviet Foreign Trade Committee was exclusively involved in trade with African and Asian countries. The main goal of these relationships was the economic support of friendly regimes in these regions. In short, the Foreign Trade Committee simply implemented government decisions to build factories or power plants in various countries for political reasons. The question of profiting from the deal never came up, and there was no competition from other international suppliers.


Judging by some of Davydov's recent statements, it would seem that this experience is still influencing him. He continues to insist on maintaining the old institution of special exporters, which is tantamount to maintaining export quotas. He also wants to strictly limit imports into Russia and is an avid supporter of using protectionist policies to shield Russia's consumer goods producers.


But strengthening government regulation may cost Russia dearly, at least in terms of its relations with international financial organizations. If it becomes clear toward January that Russia is continuing to implement export quotas, the World Bank will not release its promised $600 million credit to Russia's oil industry. Furthermore, the entire credit program set up by the World Bank is also in danger -- and that program is worth more than $3 billion.


The second new deputy prime minister, Alexei Bolshakov, a St. Petersburg manager, is considerably less well-known. It is known, though, that he was one of the main candidates for the post of economics minister and that parallel decrees naming both Bolshakov and Yasin to the post were drawn up last week. Sources say that Anatoly Chubais, supported by Chernomyrdin, was able to secure the appointment for the well-known liberal Yasin.


In short, the recent appointments raise a number of questions, but we can say that the appearance of figures such as Yasin in the cabinet indicates that it may be premature to say that the current government is finished.