After a series of heavy hints about his dissatisfaction with Andrei Kozyrev, he appeared to set the seal on the minister's fate Thursday when he told journalists he was looking for a suitable candidate to replace him. A few hours later, after allowing the world press time to write Kozyrev's political obituary, he announced that, on the contrary, he would be keeping him on and that what he was looking for was a deputy minister to shoulder some of the administrative burden.
All of which, of course, leaves none of us any the wiser on whether Kozyrev will stay or go now.
His continued presence would act as reassurance for the West. Kozyrev's five-year tenure as foreign minister, despite a number of ups and downs, reflects a period of growing understanding and cooperation with Russia.
Conversely, his dismissal could -- but would not necessarily -- signal an about-face in foreign policy. The only alternative to bridge-building is isolation. If Yeltsin has decided to adopt such a course, then firing Kozyrev would indeed be a prerequisite first step. But he might equally decide that Kozyrev would make an ideal sacrificial lamb to take the blame for recent Russian foreign policy humiliations, such as a perceived acquiescence to NATO expansion and its the bombing of the Bosnian Serbs.
For the same reason, Yeltsin could well decide to keep Kozyrev in place for the time being, while continuing to distance himself from unpopular foreign policy decisions, a number of which still lie ahead. In this way, Kozyrev could continue to take the blame for Russia's inability to change NATO's plans to expand into Eastern Europe and the alliance's refusal to accept joint or rotating command of a combined Russian-NATO peacekeeping force in Bosnia.
But even if there should be a major policy revision and a rank hardliner were appointed in Kozyrev's place, it would take several months for the changes to take effect. The Kozyrev line has evolved over the last five years; its origins lay in the course of reconciliation adopted by Mikhail Gorbachev in the perestroika era. It will not be dropped overnight.
From the West's point of view, the best outcome would be for Kozyrev to stay in his job. He represents stability and moderation. He can calm the waters stirred up from time to time by his impulsive president. But if Yeltsin does decide to get rid of him, it does not necessarily mean a return to the old days of confrontation. So no need yet to abandon ship.
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