Lithuania is in a crisis. Unemployment is currently 8 percent, inflation ran at 25 percent in August alone, the new currency has yet to be introduced and an energy shortage has reached such a critical stage that people are actually cooking over campfires in their yards.
Meanwhile, the government has been paralyzed by political infighting since spring. Lithuania now has its fourth prime minister in less than two years. The constitution that was approved Sunday was ready for the electorate less than a week before the election, and key parts of it were simply left to future amendments.
Who can blame the Lithuanian voters for wanting a change? Led by Vytautas Landsbergis, the nationalist Sajudis movement has ruled the country since independence with a program that has been heavy tilted toward antagonizing the Russians.
Energy conservation measures that could have been introduced relatively painlessly in the summer were delayed until they caused real hardship. As late as two weeks ago, Landsbergis was hinting that the "undeclared Russian blockade" of oil was politically motivated to bolster support for the Communists.
A Communist parliament would likely stumble on many of the same obstacles as Sajudis, but on one point their different stand is dead right: Lithuania cannot afford to totally abandon Russia as a trading partner. Lithuania's oil and gas pipelines are connected to Russia, and it has many trad-ing links in electronics and furniture. The Communist's promise of better relations with Russia is perfectly sensible as long as it is a policy based on mutual self-interest rather than anti-Russian demagoguery.
As to other policy changes a Communist-led government might deliver -- and it is still not certain that they will win enough seats in the next round of elections to control the parliament -- big changes are unlikely. A badly needed IMF loan package comes with conditions attached that the Communists could scarcely afford to ignore. and slowing the Russian troop withdrawal would be political suicide.
Lithuanians were prepared to weather a tough spell with Landsbergis, who led them so unswervingly to independence. But many rightly feel that the crisis has been deeper than it needed to be. In the end, Sajudis overestimated the power of its nationalist rhetoric and underestimated the importance of voter's wallets.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.