The economy may grow 4 percent to 4.5 percent this year, higher than the official forecast of 3 percent to 3.5 percent, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said Tuesday.
"According to the official forecast, GDP growth in 2010 will amount to 3 percent to 3.5 percent, but it's a conservative estimate. The most realistic estimate of the GDP growth is 4 to 4.5 percent," he told a forum in Moscow.
Klepach also said that even a 6 percent increase was possible this year if the kind of growth seen in the third and fourth quarter of 2009 continued.
The economy shrunk by 7.9 percent last year, the worst drop for the last 15 years, the State Statistic Service said in February.
Analysts largely share the government's optimistic growth forecast, saying a recovery in consumer demand is likely to spur the economy forward.
Domestic demand will increase and government spending will remain at last year's level, said Mark Rubinstein, an analyst at Metropol. And while a lack of business investment will be a major problem in 2010, it will likely rebound in the second half, he said.
Rubinstein added that his own forecast for 2010 GDP growth stood at 4.4 percent.
Renaissance Capital said earlier this month that it expected the economy to grow 4.2 percent over 2010, according to its leading GDP indicator.
Klepach said stable economic growth was possible as early as the second half of this year, even if the oil price falls to $65 to $70 per barrel.
Oil, Russia's biggest export, edged above $80 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday and has been oscillating between $70 and $80 throughout the past nine months.
But economic growth may be constrained by a number of factors including an appreciating ruble, which could strengthen as much as 18 to 20 percent over the next three years, Klepach said.
The ruble has increased 2.5 percent to 29.3 per dollar since the beginning of the year, and 24 percent since its midcrisis nadir of 36.3. It's still short of its pre-crisis peak of 23.1 per dollar, however. Klepach has said that, taking inflation into account, the ruble is already stronger than its pre-crisis high point.
While a strong ruble can mean good news for consumers, who are able to buy foreign goods at a relative discount, it can wreak havoc on the country's fragile manufacturing industry, making Russian commodities and manufactured goods comparatively more expensive for foreign buyers.
Klepach said earlier this week that the Central Bank should reconsider its decision to reduce interventions in the currency market, saying that tempering the ruble's fast growth was a chief concern.
Other factors negatively affecting growth could be a decrease in demand from government agencies and stagnation in the banking sector, Klepach said.
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