The number of officially registered unemployed in Russia reached more than 1.8 million by December, well below an August employment service forecast of 3 million jobless by the end of this year. About 79,800 lost their jobs in November, compared with the 100,000 laid off in October.
"The figures have been keeping closer to the lowest levels of those predicted," Natalya Vlasova, an expert with the service, said Thursday. She said the most optimistic calculations showed unemployment would reach 1.4 million by the end of the year, and two other forecasts produced by the service put the figure at 3 million and 5 million.
The number of people currently out of work accounts for about 2.6 percent of Russia's estimated work force of about 70 million people. The figure represents only those who have officially registered as out of work.
Actual joblessness in Russia may be four or five times higher, according to Russian trade unions and Western analysts. A study by the International Labor Organization, released in September, estimated that more than one third of Russia's labor pool is in "suppressed unemployment," which means that they have jobs without actual work or real pay.
Russia's bankruptcy program -- under which hundreds of companies are supposed to be liquidated or sold to investors who could restructure them -- was expected to lead to higher unemployment rates this year, but so far appears to have had little impact.
Diagrams produced by the Federal Employment Service show that state-owned enterprises, which comprise a minority of all companies in Russia, have contributed to 59 percent of the unemployment total. But they have also the largest proportion of job openings in the registered labor market.
Vlasova said this situation occurs because the state-owned enterprises cannot afford to pay competitive salaries and therefore lose their employees. However, their poor economic performance does not relieve their need for staff which, consequently, creates the vacancies.
While the national Russian labor market offers one job per 5 unemployed, the situation remains a lot tougher in Ingushetia, the North Caucasus republic where there are almost 197 unemployed per job opening.
"Ingushetia is full of refugees," Vlasova explained. "It is in the middle of a very volatile region and its unemployment level has always been the highest in Russia."
The Federal Employment Service report did not make any new forecasts for 1995.
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