Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zaveryukha said the 1994 harvest would be 90 to 95 million tons, down from last year's 99 million.
"Federal and regional food and fodder reserves will be filled if we bring in and distribute the harvest effectively," he told Itar-Tass at a meeting of senior Agriculture Ministry officials in the central Russian city of Kaluga.
He repeated the official position that there would be no grain imports this year by federal authorities.
But regional and local authorities in the Far East and possibly northern regions would make "commercial purchases" abroad because of the high cost of transporting grain from Russian growing areas.
Zaveryukha, who has overall responsibility for agriculture, said much would depend on the quality of the harvest. But independent grain trade experts said early tests from big southern growing areas showed excellent quality.
"We had plenty of moisture in the spring, even floods in the Volga region that worried us for a while, and very thick snow cover," one Russian source said.
"It's not a dead summer like 1972. There has been substantial sub-soil moisture, so you can live for a month or so without considerable rainfall. For spring crops, it is excellent," he said.
The source said samples from the major Krasnodar and Stavropol growing areas showed "the best quality for about 20 years." But it was still too early to talk about import requirements or export prospects.
Zaveryukha said Russia had sold more than 3 million tons of grain in the second half of last year to former Soviet republics and East European states and was becoming a major exporter.
This tendency would continue, he said. "We will sell some here and there, but for certain regions ... we will buy."
He gave no hint of where the imports might be obtained, but Russia's main suppliers in the past have been the United States, France, Canada and Australia. Overall imports last year totaled about 11 million tons, down from 26 million in 1992.
Grain trade sources said Russia still had 8 or 9 million tons of grain from last year, when farmers held on to their grain in expectation of rising prices.
They said the same situation could develop this year after the euphoria over last month's announcement of sharply higher recommended grain prices dies down.
"Farmers will calm down and realize that Roskhleboprodukt does not have the money to pay the high prices," one source said, in reference to the state grain purchasing agency. Zaveryukha said farmers should receive 180,000 to 200,000 rubles ($86 to $96) a ton for fourth-class hard wheat, more than three times as much as they were paid at the start of last year's harvest.
He said the recommended price did not cover rising costs, but it was impossible to pay more because of the "discomfort" for the economy.
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