The Crimean question, which for now has been put on the back burner because of the election of a new president in Ukraine and because of Russia's domestic problems, remains a ticking time bomb. If that bomb explodes, its effects will be felt not just in Russia and Ukraine, but around the world.
The main problem here is that the overwhelming majority of the citizens of Crimea do not want to be part of Ukraine. This at least is the opinion of Yevgeny Saburov, a Moscow economist who was born in Crimea and served as its head of government. For this reason, the Black Sea Fleet, which has no strategic significance, remains a stumbling block in the relations of the two largest countries of the CIS. And for this reason, Kiev has been quietly but constantly increasing the strength of its military forces on the peninsula.
Saburov says that during his tenure Crimea was an object of constant attention from ambassadors and high-ranking diplomats from virtually all the major countries of the world. The explanation for all this attention is the idea that if Russia tries to influence what happens in Crimea, that means that Russia remains, after all, an empire. If not, then Russia truly has become a nation-state.
The problem, though, is complicated by the fact that it is not Russia that is eager to force the conflict in Crimea, but Crimea itself. The peninsula's resorts were all built by Soviet ministries and agencies, and they remain historically and economically tied to the powers in Russia. Industry, including the major cities and a number of military-industrial enterprises in the countryside, was created as a part of the Soviet Union's overall military-industrial complex and therefore is absolutely Russified.
Because of the peninsula's attractive geographic situation, industry there developed as an elite part of the Soviet Union's industrial potential. The Zaliv shipyard in Kerch already has orders into the next century. Crimean industry is radio electronics; high-quality machine-building; a space tracking station; and 11 airfields, several with runways longer than three kilometers. All of this is Crimea -- Russian-speaking, oriented toward Russia and strongly opposed to absorption by Ukraine.
However, it is yet more complicated than this. Even though it does not want to be part of Ukraine, Crimea can never again be a part of Russia. This is clear even to the most pro-Russian politicians in Crimea and to many imperialist-minded figures in Russia.
Saburov thinks that one of the most likely scenarios is the separation of Crimea from Ukraine. However, when and if that happens, it is not likely to please the Crimean Tatars, who still remember how the Russians forcibly resettled them during Stalin's terror. As a result, the long-term prospects for the peninsula's Russian-speaking majority are extremely complex. We can only hope that both Russia and Ukraine will find the wisdom to avoid a military solution of the conflict.
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