Public opinion polls in the last several days give the separatist option an even chance or better of winning a majority in the provincial referendum which takes place Oct. 30. A survey by the Montreal-based Groupe Leger et Leger, released over the weekend, said 45.8 percent of voters planned to vote yes to separation while 42.2 percent would vote no, with 12 percent still undecided. A survey by the Angus Reid Group released late last week put the decided vote at 51-49 percent for the separatist option. The margin of error in both polls is 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
The news sent Canada's stocks, bonds and currency sharply downward Monday as investors around the world confronted the turn in public opinion. For months and even in recent weeks, surveys had shown the separatist campaign lagging by as much 10 points.
Quebecers are being asked this year to say yes or no to the proposition that the province of 7 million should become sovereign and offer the remains of Canada an economic and political partnership that has been likened to the European Union.
Such a declaration would be extra-constitutional, and Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has refused to comment explicitly on whether the federal government would, or could, recognize it. But at the very least, a majority yes would plunge Canada into a constitutional crisis of long and bitter duration.
The last time Quebecers were asked to vote on an even softer "sovereignty association" formula, in 1980, they rejected it by 60 percent to 40 percent. Many analysts in English Canada continue to insist that in the voting booth they will vote conservatively again.
But the new polls appear to indicate a real shift in momentum and analysts say it has been caused largely by the decision of Quebec Premier Jacques Parizeau to turn over principal leadership of the flagging "yes" side to Lucien Bouchard, leader of the separatist party in the federal parliament.
Bouchard has become a sentimental favorite of Quebecers since he lost his left leg to a flesh-eating bacteria last December.
At the same time, Bouchard and Parizeau have redefined their program. Parizeau, whose Parti Quebecois government was elected a year ago on a platform of separation from Canada, has since embraced the concept of a simultaneous offer of partnership with Canada.
The referendum question is complicated and, federalists say, deliberately vague and confusing. "Do you agree that Quebec should become sovereign after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership?" the question begins, concluding with references to provincial legislation and a June 12, 1995, agreement on the partnership offer among separatist allies.
A sovereign Quebec, under the proposed scheme, would maintain the Canadian passport and currency and establish supranational councils with Canada for purposes of common defense, customs and trade.
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