Brains Can Temper Muscle Power

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Lately, Russia has used more muscle than brain in its foreign policy. The gas crisis with Ukraine over New Year's was a good example of muscle applied when a little brain power might have paid higher dividends. Now, Russia's cherished goal of presenting itself as a reliable supplier of gas and oil to Europe and the big world economies seems in doubt. The energy security agenda that Russia planned to focus on during its Group of Eight presidency, just begun, is in disarray.

It's common enough for countries to go for muscle rather than brain power. The United States went down that road in invading Iraq, to the dismay of many of my fellow citizens. A muscular threat can often be effective, but once a country crosses over to muscular action, other complications set in. Like exploding a nuclear weapon, turning off gas or invading a country does have unintended consequences. In this case, Russia's reputation has been sorely damaged.

So Russia has some repair work to do to restore its credibility, in energy security as well as in the broader international arena. Now the question: Is there a way to quickly boost confidence among Russia's closest partners, especially the G8 countries, with which it will have so much business over the coming months? The period between now and the July summit of the G8 in St. Petersburg will be especially intense, as Russia has the opportunity to position itself, once again, as a trusted supplier of energy and a reliable international player.

This clearly is the time to bring Russia's considerable brainpower to the forefront. Already the Kremlin has begun to take some pragmatic steps in its diplomacy, to start restoring confidence in other countries. Beyond the considerable experience of its negotiators, however, other Russian experts should be brought to bear. In particular, Russian science and technology can play a powerful role.

Russian scientists are respected the world over -- Russian science, despite the depredations of the past decade, still produces some of the best work in certain fields. In applied science, for example, Russian nuclear energy research is at the forefront of new ideas on advanced fuel cycles, research that will have an important impact on the global trend to expand nuclear power.

The Kremlin needs to bring Russian science and technology into its repair work with the G8 and other world partners. Russian scientists and engineers are the brains who will help to restore Russia's position on the world stage. If we start with energy security, they can make a significant contribution not only on nuclear power, but also in many areas related to exploration and extraction, as well as delivery and conservation, of fossil fuels. Russian research work in the Arctic, for example, will be increasingly valuable as more and more attention turns to developing gas and oil fields in the Far North.

Energy is not the only example. Another agenda item that President Vladimir Putin put in place for Russia's G8 presidency is disease surveillance and control. Avian flu is at the top of everyone's list of worries in this area, although established diseases such as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis also are top priorities. With avian flu, Russian medical specialists have already proved themselves highly capable of rapid-fire identification of avian flu outbreaks during the transit of migrant bird populations through Siberia. The country's experience in this regard could inform and improve efforts to fight avian flu among its neighbors in both Europe and Asia.

And while Russian science reaches out to the rest of the world, it's important that other science reach in. Russia is gripped by serious demographic problems. Every year, the population drops by 1 million, afflicted by a combination of poor public health and low birth rates. In a worst case, the population could drop below 100 million by 2050.

Russia is not alone, however. With few exceptions, all of Europe is gripped by similar demographic problems, as is Japan, and their governments must consider the impact on work force, pensions and health care in the coming decades. Bringing Russian demographers and other scientists into research on this topic could bring benefits to Russia while it expands knowledge of the problem among the other G8 countries.

No country is going to totally abandon muscular policy as an option to accomplish its goals. This is particularly true of Russia, which has a history of applying muscle to perceived problems, especially with its neighbors.

Now, however, Russia has a lot of unintended consequences to repair, and a short time to do so. If the Kremlin wants the St. Petersburg summit to be a success, it will have to move out quickly to restore confidence among its G8 partners. So it is time to put Russia's best brains to work on the problem -- and science and technology can provide a good stock of them.

Rose Gottemoeller is director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.