RIGA, Latvia--An unlikely party has emerged as potential kingmaker in the tussle to form the next government of Latvia: the unreconstructed communists of the tiny Latvian Socialist Party.
With six seats in the next Saeima, or parliament, the LSP, whose leader Alfreds Rubiks is currently serving a prison sentence for treason, could tip the scales in favor of the nationalist or left-leaning blocs that have informally coalesced during feverish negotiations since the elections.
At present, the nationalist bloc, built around the current ruling party, Latvia's Way, has gathered 46 of the Saeima's 100 seats. The left bloc, which includes the Democratic Party Saimnieks -- overall winner in the elections -- has 48 seats. Any government must be approved by a majority of 51 deputies.
An official at LSP headquarters, who declined to give her name, said on Friday that no decision had yet been made. "We have our own program, and if any party demonstrated support for that program we would naturally join with them," she said, adding that the LSP might attempt to forge a third bloc.
Analysts agree, however, that the LSP will almost certainly join the Saimnieks bloc. "They cannot join the nationalists, because this would be a complete sell-out," said Aldis Paolins, director of the Latvian Social Research Institute.
While this makes a socialist-oriented government more likely when the Saeima convenes in early November, the nationalists could still prevail. Latvian President Guntis Ulmanis has publicly indicated that a majority in parliament will not necessarily prove the decisive factor in his choice of the next prime minister.
"Parties that did not attain the results they expected in the election should not fall into a panic and throw up their arms. The elections alone do not determine the fate, approach and program of parties," Ulmanis told Diena, a leading newspaper, last week.
A minority government would be nothing new in Latvia. The current government, led by Prime Minister Maris Gailis of Latvia's Way, was formed from a parliamentary minority. And according to Paolins, this option would be best for the country.
"The Saimnieks bloc could not form a stable government, because there are too many differences between the coalition members. The nationalists, with Latvia's Way, could provide this stability, and if they could pull in four or five deputies from the other parties, they could well form the government," Paolins said.
The nationalists are not without conflicts of their own, however. One member of the bloc, the Fatherland and Freedom Party, advocates putting a new version of the country's citizenship law, including strict quotas and tighter restrictions, to a national referendum.
Under the current law 700,000 ethnic Russians in Latvia -- roughly one-fourth of the total population -- do not have citizenship, and cannot vote. Most parties, including Latvia's Way and Saimnieks, hold that the law is sufficient, but has been poorly implemented.
On the left, Saimnieks, which bills itself as centrist and pro-business, has been forced to join ranks with Joachim Siegerist's right-wing Popular Movement for Latvia. Siegerist, who speaks almost no Latvian, has been convicted in a German court of inciting racial hatred, and is free pending an appeal.
The PML nevertheless came third in the elections, with 16 seats. "Siegerist simply worked hard in the countryside," said Saimnieks's chief spin-doctor, Baldurs Apinis. "I observed his campaign, and as a professional I can say that he earned what he got; he deserved it."
Paolins explained that Siegerist had appealed to those "marginalized by the current government. While Latvia's Way won the votes of people who have managed to adapt to the market and the new political situation, Siegerist attracted those who have not."
According to J.C. Cole, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Latvia, even a Saimnieks-led government would not spell the end of the country's path to a market economy.
"I think that economic growth will continue in the proper direction in any case. The only thing that will develop Latvia is growth, and whoever is in power will realize this as soon as they look at the budget," Cole said.
With six seats in the next Saeima, or parliament, the LSP, whose leader Alfreds Rubiks is currently serving a prison sentence for treason, could tip the scales in favor of the nationalist or left-leaning blocs that have informally coalesced during feverish negotiations since the elections.
At present, the nationalist bloc, built around the current ruling party, Latvia's Way, has gathered 46 of the Saeima's 100 seats. The left bloc, which includes the Democratic Party Saimnieks -- overall winner in the elections -- has 48 seats. Any government must be approved by a majority of 51 deputies.
An official at LSP headquarters, who declined to give her name, said on Friday that no decision had yet been made. "We have our own program, and if any party demonstrated support for that program we would naturally join with them," she said, adding that the LSP might attempt to forge a third bloc.
Analysts agree, however, that the LSP will almost certainly join the Saimnieks bloc. "They cannot join the nationalists, because this would be a complete sell-out," said Aldis Paolins, director of the Latvian Social Research Institute.
While this makes a socialist-oriented government more likely when the Saeima convenes in early November, the nationalists could still prevail. Latvian President Guntis Ulmanis has publicly indicated that a majority in parliament will not necessarily prove the decisive factor in his choice of the next prime minister.
"Parties that did not attain the results they expected in the election should not fall into a panic and throw up their arms. The elections alone do not determine the fate, approach and program of parties," Ulmanis told Diena, a leading newspaper, last week.
A minority government would be nothing new in Latvia. The current government, led by Prime Minister Maris Gailis of Latvia's Way, was formed from a parliamentary minority. And according to Paolins, this option would be best for the country.
"The Saimnieks bloc could not form a stable government, because there are too many differences between the coalition members. The nationalists, with Latvia's Way, could provide this stability, and if they could pull in four or five deputies from the other parties, they could well form the government," Paolins said.
The nationalists are not without conflicts of their own, however. One member of the bloc, the Fatherland and Freedom Party, advocates putting a new version of the country's citizenship law, including strict quotas and tighter restrictions, to a national referendum.
Under the current law 700,000 ethnic Russians in Latvia -- roughly one-fourth of the total population -- do not have citizenship, and cannot vote. Most parties, including Latvia's Way and Saimnieks, hold that the law is sufficient, but has been poorly implemented.
On the left, Saimnieks, which bills itself as centrist and pro-business, has been forced to join ranks with Joachim Siegerist's right-wing Popular Movement for Latvia. Siegerist, who speaks almost no Latvian, has been convicted in a German court of inciting racial hatred, and is free pending an appeal.
The PML nevertheless came third in the elections, with 16 seats. "Siegerist simply worked hard in the countryside," said Saimnieks's chief spin-doctor, Baldurs Apinis. "I observed his campaign, and as a professional I can say that he earned what he got; he deserved it."
Paolins explained that Siegerist had appealed to those "marginalized by the current government. While Latvia's Way won the votes of people who have managed to adapt to the market and the new political situation, Siegerist attracted those who have not."
According to J.C. Cole, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Latvia, even a Saimnieks-led government would not spell the end of the country's path to a market economy.
"I think that economic growth will continue in the proper direction in any case. The only thing that will develop Latvia is growth, and whoever is in power will realize this as soon as they look at the budget," Cole said.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Not ready to support today?
Remind me later.
Remind me later.
×
Remind me next month
Thank you! Your reminder is set.
We will send you one reminder email a month from now. For details on the personal data we collect and how it is used, please see our Privacy Policy.