As far as Ukraine is concerned, the election of Kuchma does indeed remove some of Russia's headaches. The hardline nationalists of western Ukraine are now less of a threat, the Russian majority in the Crimea will be reassured and less rebellious, while prospects of a solution to the protracted dispute over the Black Sea fleet are much improved.
But Kuchma may find that his plans for economic integration, while receiving formal nods of approval in Moscow, will not go down quite so well when he tries to implement them.
Russia has enough problems of its own without having to take on the burden of Ukraine's moribund economy. Plans for monetary union with Belarus already threaten to increase Russian inflation; to do the same with Ukraine would pose risks many times greater.
In Belarus, Lukashenko has promised to reverse the few economic reforms that have been allowed to take place since the collapse of Soviet power. At a stroke he intends to stop privatization and restore subsidies to state industries. It is not clear how he would finance such a scheme; possibly by printing huge amounts of Russian rubles at the Belarussian state bank. One can hardly imagine that going down well in Moscow.
That is only one reason why Lukashenko's election should be received with caution here. The fact that he has been dubbed "the Belarussian Zhirinovsky" is also an uncomfortable reminder to Russia's more sober politicians of the maverick ultranationalist in their midst. To have another loose cannon careening about on their western borders is scarcely reassuring.
Lukashenko's election pledges -- to crack down on corruption and crime, to provide a job, a home and vodka to everyone, and place the country's present rulers behind bars -- all went down well with an electorate fed up with what it saw as an incompetent, corrupt and self-seeking government. But whom will Lukashenko find to blame when the economy fails to improve on his watch?
Fortunately, tenure in office is one of the great moderating influences in politics. Having attained the presidency at the young age of 39, Lukashenko will inevitably have to rethink some of his election policies -- many of which, one suspects, were pure rhetoric.
The president, provided he does not resolve to emulate Stalin or Hitler, will still have to work with a prime minister, a government and parliament that should act as a brake on his excessive zeal.
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