Install

Get the latest updates as we post them — right on your browser

Today's paper. Last Updated: 02/08/2012

Science Needs a Climate Change

It might seem that the difference between science and politics is crystal clear, but the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen suggests that the difference becomes blurred when it comes down to a discussion of practical measures to solve a major global problem. The moment that scientific questions touch upon a politically charged topic, the game rules become political.

In politics, the key is the strength of your coalition. That is, the group sharing your point of view must be stronger than the coalition supporting the opposing viewpoint. In ancient times, to be “stronger” you often had to be physically more powerful. Now, the strongest group is the one representing the majority.

A majority of the countries participating in the climate change conference support the rapid introduction of limits and quotas for environmental pollution. In a big development, China is now a member of that majority. With a population of 1.3 billion — almost one-sixth of the global population — it cannot afford to ignore the fate of the planet.

Now the task is to convince the developing countries to join the effort. Limiting pollution levels would mean limiting their opportunities for economic development, exacerbating the already large gap between rich and poor countries.

The poorer countries are being induced to support the initiative with financial aid. Last week, it was announced that developed countries would allocate $10.5 billion to developing countries over three years to help them fight climate change. The idea is to assist those countries to somehow “skip over” the development stage that typically involves the heaviest emission of pollutants. The wealthy countries, where pollutants per capita are decreasing, will help bring the developing countries up to a modern technological level.

But economists have yet to find a reliable method for ensuring sustainable growth for developing countries. In his book “The Elusive Quest for Growth,” former World Bank economist William Easterly documented 50 years of unsuccessful attempts to help developing countries develop. But by its very nature, the plan to include poor countries in the battle against global climate change implies a much larger project than simply helping them achieve sustainable growth.

To what extent is the climate agenda based on hard scientific evidence? Those involved tell us that the proposed pollution-fighting measures fully reflect the recommendations of 80 percent of the scientific community. But this overlooks the fact that in science, an 80:20 ratio — or even a 90:10 spread — is far less convincing than it is in politics. When 80 percent of the scientists disagree with the other 20 percent, it effectively means that there is no solid scientific basis for taking practical measures.

It would be great if we did have one, though. The recent “Climategate” scandal in which hackers attacked the server used by the Climatic Research Unit in Britain clearly shows that it is necessary to fund and organize climate research in such a way that scientists are protected from the state’s political interference and even from their fellow scientists. For much less money than has been needed to combat the economic crisis, it would be possible to establish permanent climate-research centers at leading universities and provide them with all of the accumulated data that they require for their work. In that way, the political majority would have a more solid scientific foundation on which to base its decisions.

Konstantin Sonin, a visiting professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, is a professor at the New Economic School in Moscow and a columnist for Vedomosti.




Tags

Copenhagen climate change



Also in Opinion

Realpolitik Without Realism

People have been asking me all week why the Kremlin is so stubbornly supportive of Syrian President Bashar Assad. "Is Russia's support based solely on weapons contracts with Syria," they wonder, "or the Kremlin's desire to maintain its naval base at the Tartus port?"

Alpha Dog Can't Save Russia

Every failed revolution is followed by a serious repercussion. Considering that the current "White Revolution" is bound to fail, turmoil awaits this country after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is inaugurated as president in May. And it will be a powerful repercussion, like the one that followed the failed revolution of 1905.

Europe's Debt Problems Cannot Be Ignored

The echoes of Russia's debt default in 1998 — which is now, fortunately, of mere historical interest as seen from Moscow — seem to reverberate worryingly in Europe.

Why Electoral Fraud Is the Better of Two Evils

Putin can't afford a second round. He needs to show that he is still the true national leader. Faced with the choice of having to falsify a certain percentage of the vote to win in the first round or face a second round, Putin would probably pick falsification as the "lesser of two evils."


.

Putin's Empty Promise of Honest Elections

At a meeting with a group of young lawyers last week, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin promised that the upcoming presidential election would be honest and that the results would not be manipulated.

The Truth About Gary Powers, a Cold War Hero

Friday marks the 50th anniversary of the famous spy exchange between U-2 pilot Francis Gary Powers and Soviet spy Rudolph Able on the Glienicker Bridge in Potsdam, Germany.




Discussion
The Moscow Times welcomes your comments and invites you to discuss topics with other readers. Your comment will be posted automatically to enable a live discussion. If you aren't familiar with our comments policy, you can read it here.

If you're a registered user, you can start typing your comment below. If not, take a moment to sign up. and then return to the article.

If your comment doesn't appear, contact us by using our web form.

Comments



Ted Heidrick

Congratulations to you Russians Your recent work outlined in:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-serial-now-the-russians-confirm-that-uk-climate-scientists-manipulated-data-to-exaggerate-global-warming/

showing the CRU crew cherry picked urban warmed Temperatures will surely keep the momentum going for a real discussion. I suspect the 80/20 scientist ratio was propoganda anyway but will surely become more balanced as more disussion and honesty becomes clear.


Report Inappropriate Comment




Comments via Facebook

print


Comments

This article has 1 comment on TheMoscowTimes.com and 0 comments on Facebook.

Leave a comment


To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.

Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.



Most Read