Install

Get the latest updates as we post them — right on your browser

Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/28/2012

Schism in the Tandem Is Getting Larger

Since his Krasnoyarsk speech in February 2008, President Dmitry Medvedev has persistently said the opposite of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. As Dmitry Muratov, editor-in-chief of Novaya Gazeta, put it, “Medvedev represents the Internet party and Putin — the television party.” Admittedly, the low-brow television party comprises a two-thirds majority, but the Internet party represents the future and is growing fast.

The differences between Medvedev’s Magnitogorsk speech in March and Putin’s address to the State Duma last week highlight how the conflict between the two leaders has come out into the open. Medvedev went out on a limb in his 10 points in Magnitogorsk, while Putin went out on the opposite limb in Duma speech. While Medvedev stands for ideas, Putin sounded like Leonid Brezhnev offering many details but without relevant comparisons and devoid of principles. Their two contemporaneous speeches offer us an excellent comparison of their declared economic policies.

Putin was not only satisfied but proud of the state of the Russian economy: “I think it is our common achievement that Russia successfully avoided serious shocks that could have weakened the country, undermined its economic and human potential.”

But Russia’s gross domestic product plummeted by 8 percent in 2009, more than in any other Group of 20 country, and the recovery of 4 percent in 2010 was rather feeble, particularly when you consider that oil prices were high throughout the year and that Russia had the largest stimulus package of any G20 country. Before the crisis, Putin compared Russia to the dynamic BRIC countries, but since Russia now underperforms them all he has reverted to the extinct G8. What’s more, in the old days Putin used to call Russia an energy superpower, but now he denies that the high oil price caused Russia’s growth.

By contrast, Medvedev was entirely downbeat in his Magnitogorsk speech: “Until we make our country attractive for business and private initiative, we will not achieve our main goal of improving the quality of life for our people.”

Medvedev attacked corruption as the main evil in the Russian economy: “Corruption continues to affect the general economic situation, maintaining a stranglehold on the entire economy, and this hold is still as strong as ever. The result is clear for all to see: Money is fleeing our economy. Not as many people believe in the possibility of doing safe and successful business in Russia as we would like.” He called for numerous actions, for example: “I instruct the Prosecutor General’s Office … to introduce a special procedure for examining complaints about state agencies’ actions or inaction that contain an allegation of corruption.”

Putin mentioned corruption only in passing, as if it were only a minor irritant: “Needless to say, we must counter corruption, increase responsibility of officials and eradicate the very conditions for illegal conduct and bribery.”

Medvedev’s persistent theme has been modernization and his four I’s — institutions, infrastructure, investment and innovations — from his Krasnoyarsk speech. His emphasis in Magnitogorsk lay on the necessity to improve the investment climate: “We must drastically improve the quality of the most common services for the investment community … customs, the quality of services at airports, registration procedures, visa issuance procedures, work permit procedures and postal services.”

Another Medvedev phrase might have been meant as a veiled reference to Putin and his ilk: “We will have no choice but to dismiss those who continue to erect various barriers and obstacles, give preference to their friends or fail to take the required action on the basis of pretended state interests that have nothing in common with our people’s interests.”

Putin does not really talk about modernization of society as such. His Duma speech was dominated by multiple measures of arbitrary state intervention and subsidies in all sectors of the economy with phrases such as “the state helped.” Putin’s economic model is dominated by state capitalism and industrial policy. For example, in amazing detail he claimed that foreign automobile manufacturers should move production to Russia and produce at least 300,000 cars a year if they want to do business in the country. Rather than enticing foreign investors with attractive conditions, Putin essentially intimidates them.

One of the chasms between Medvedev and Putin is privatization. Putin is the father of state corporations and re-nationalization. He did not mention the word privatization in his lengthy speech, making evident that he opposes it. Instead, he suggests that “public-private partnerships” can be an “efficient model.” Medvedev, by contrast, criticizes big state corporations and promotes privatization at length: “We need to … stop state companies from exerting too great an influence on the investment climate. First, we should finally set and make public a timetable for privatizing large government shareholdings over the next three years. Second, we must end the practice of having government ministers responsible for regulation in particular sectors sitting on the boards of directors of companies.”

Another major divide between Medvedev and Putin is pensions. According to Putin, his greatest achievement in the last year was that he increased so-called working pensions by 45 percent. At the same time, he attacked France, Estonia, Greece, Poland and Latvia for raising the retirement age or freezing pensions, indirectly stating that he is against pension reform in Russia. Medvedev, on the contrary, worries about the increase in the social security tax from 26 percent to 34 percent of the payroll and demanded the government — that is, Putin — to reverse this increase in 2012. In this way, Putin appeals to old pensioners, while Medvedev cares about entrepreneurship and economic growth.

Nowhere is the difference between Medvedev and Putin greater than in their foreign policy. Medvedev has heralded the reset of Russia’s relations with the United States and many European nations, and he has persistently promoted Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization. But Putin’s whole speech advocated protectionism, and he cheered the downgrade of U.S. debt. His bottom line was: “We must be independent and strong.” Characteristically, he did not mention the WTO, while he talked almost lyrically about the dysfunctional customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, which Ukraine has brushed off, much to the Kremlin’s disappointment. When directly asked about the WTO, Putin responded ambiguously: “It is a very important and a very difficult question,” worrying that Russia might not be allowed sufficiently large agricultural subsidies.

One must wonder whether Putin and Medvedev are talking about the same country, and why are they in the same government? Obviously, they represent opposing philosophies. Would it not make more sense if they were running against each other in the 2012 race? And perhaps others should be allowed to run as well. After all, Medvedev and Putin both claim that Russia is a democracy and that the voters should choose their leader.

Anders Aslund is a senior fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.





This article has 1 comment on TheMoscowTimes.com and 0 comments on Facebook.

Leave a comment


Discussion
The Moscow Times welcomes your comments and invites you to discuss topics with other readers. Your comment will be posted automatically to enable a live discussion. If you aren't familiar with our comments policy, you can read it here.

If you're a registered user, you can start typing your comment below. If not, take a moment to sign up. and then return to the article.

If your comment doesn't appear, contact us by using our web form.

Comments



Schism in the Tandem Is Getting Larger

@font-face { font-family: "Times New Roman"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }table.MsoNormalTable { font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }div.Section1 { page: Section1; } The advantages for Russia accruing from a run for president by Mr. Medvedev could be enormous, win or lose.  Presently, Russia is a one party system.  As others have recognized, Medvedev's candidacy would stand a good chance of resulting in the creation a two party system in Russia.  This would be tantamount to a political earthquake somewhere around 9.0 on the scale of social change leading to true self-government for Russians.  Also presently, press freedom is severely diminished because a one party system is motivated, and able, to control it.  With political pluralism, press freedom is, almost overnight, transformed from a dreaded challenge to power, into a precious and essential tool power can now use to expose the workings of political competitors.  A third potential is nothing short of magnificent — a game changer --  bringing hope to Russia such as hasn't been seen in centuries.  Opposition groups, the Nemtsovs, Yavlinskis, and Kasparovs of Russia, could, if they are shrewd and pragmatic, piggyback on Medvedev's star to finally bring credibility and light to the principles of freedom, democracy, rule of law, and social civility that they have so far been unable to affect under the heel of autocracy.  By co-opting Medvedev, and playing on points of agreement, they may have a golden opportunity to finally stake a claim in Russia's future.   Paul Shelton, Seattle, pgshelton@w-link.net. 

Report Inappropriate Comment




Comments via Facebook



Also in Opinion

There's Just One Nationality — Mathematician

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind."

Russia's New Propaganda Minister

After Monday's announcement that historian Vladimir Medinsky was appointed the culture minister, critics quickly labeled him the new propaganda minister. Medinsky's academic ethics and historical distortions may raise serious questions, but for the Kremlin, he has three important attributes that are much more important: He is a model United Russia leader, a firm Putin loyalist and a skilled sophist.

Spinning Medvedev's Government

Were this 2008 and not 2012 — and had Dmitry Medvedev been named prime minister without having first served a full term as president — then the composition of his new government might have created a generally positive impression.

New Government Faces Old Problems

A longstanding platitude shared by both the Kremlin as well as domestic and foreign analysts is the need for Russia to diversify its economy away from energy dependence and reduce its non-oil budget deficit.

Putin's Postman Delivers Nothing at the G8

In the mid-1990s, former President Boris Yeltsin fought hard for the right to sit as equal at the same table with the leaders of the world's seven leading democracies. Using a lot of political wrangling, Moscow finally secured permanent membership in this elite club where the real heavyweights are supposed to solve the world's most pressing problems.

Russia Stays Home

Just three days before his return to the Kremlin as president, Vladimir Putin met behind closed doors at his residence in Novo-Ogaryovo, outside Moscow, with U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, who was there to transmit President Barack Obama's renewed determination to strengthen cooperation with Russia.



print


Comments

This article has 1 comment on TheMoscowTimes.com and 0 comments on Facebook.

Leave a comment


To Our Readers

The Moscow Times welcomes letters to the editor. Letters for publication should be signed and bear the signatory's address and telephone number.

Letters to the editor should be sent by fax to (7-495) 232-6529, by e-mail to oped@imedia.ru, or by post. The Moscow Times reserves the right to edit letters.



Most Read
MarketGid