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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/28/2012

Putin Between Bush and Lukashenko

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is living his De Gaulle moment — a blinding mixture of stupefaction and anger that his country no longer wants him back as president.

Putin refuses to accept that the drumming United Russia suffered in the State Duma elections was in fact a massive vote of protest against his intention to rule this country for another 12 years.

Feeling the nation underappreciates his accomplishments, he is irate at the thought that tens of thousands of relatively well-off Russians who benefited from Putin's stability would go to a protest rally in Moscow to demand change.

Putin has lost touch with the most dynamic group of Russian society — the young and upwardly mobile urban voters who no longer wish to cede to Putin the right to decide the future of their country.

His highly personalized Soviet governing style leaves him increasingly the leader of Russia's older generations while putting him at odds with the nation's future. Putin was at his cynical best during the televised call-in show Thursday.

But his arrogance and abrasiveness only magnified his detachment from reality and his unwillingness to recognize that the popular protests were centered on his figure and could not be dismissed by insults. He continued to claim the right to make the most important decisions himself.

He now has two paths open to him.

One is the George W. Bush option, where he secures a less than impressive victory in a relatively free and fair presidential vote in March and then proceeds to govern in his usual style. His approval ratings would continue to slide to the bottom, with the public weariness of his rule becoming more and more visible. He would be ridiculed, laughed and whistled at and depart politics peacefully after one six-year term.

The other is the Lukashenko 2010 option, where he imitates a competitive presidential election, which he wins in the first round by a wide margin secured through magical vote counting. He then cracks down hard on his opponents and suppresses public protest. There would be no exit strategy for him after that.

Putin opened the door for the Bush option when he promised "to go away immediately" if he felt "a lack of public support." Let's hope he meant it.

Vladimir Frolov is president of LEFF Group, a government-relations and PR company.





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Gary Marto

Hello there Watching from the sidelines from across the far west of Europe, but as someone who is almost obsessed with recent Russian history and has nothing but the greatest respect for the stoicism of the Russian people, I would make the observation that Putin has reverted to totalitarian type — meaning that he needs to cling to total power in order to evade investigations into his leadership and his personal or business affairs — the Achilles heal of absolute leaders. Putin's mistake — like most oppressors — is that he underestimates the opposition to his rule and their ability to organise mass protests. His arrogance and derision toward anyone that protests against his authority and blatant corrupt practices will surely be his downfall. It is most unfortunate that Putin has allowed the seduction of power to compromise his leadership as, in my humble opinion, Russia needs a strong leader to bring it into a true democracy. We saw what happened when a weak leader (Yeltsin) took the reins of the nation after the break up of the Soviet Union and the years of oligarchs, corruption, and organised crime that ensued. But, strong leader that he undoubtedly is Putin seems to have crossed that fine line between being a strong leader and a despotic oppressor. It is a great shame, because the Russian people deserve more respect and honour for the sacrifices and suffering they have been made to endure for decades, if not centuries. I wish the Russian people much luck. Gary Marto, Manchester, UK

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