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Today's paper. Last Updated: 02/23/2012

No One, Not Even Kudrin, Is Irreplaceable

Editorial

President Dmitry Medvedev had no choice but to fire Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

Kudrin, who had served as guardian of the nation’s finances since 2000, drew the president’s wrath when he defiantly declared that he would not work in a Cabinet led by Medvedev. Making matters worse, Kudrin balked on national television Monday when Medvedev demanded his resignation during a government session, saying he needed to consult with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin first.

What prompted Kudrin’s open defiance is unclear. Speculation that he jealously sought the prime minister’s post for himself clashes with his reputation as a meek fiscal policy expert who preferred to crunch numbers than seek personal glory. Kudrin said in his resignation letter that he felt uncomfortable with the fiscal risks that the government was taking and that he had first tried to quit in February.

It is easy to feel suspicious that the Kudrin scandal is little more than a show, part of a wily plan by Kremlin powerbrokers to accomplish some unknown goal. We could be forgiven for such cynicism after Medvedev revealed last weekend that his presidency essentially amounted to a charade, a plan concocted by him and Putin back in 2007 under which they would swap jobs in 2012.

But Kudrin did undermine Medvedev publicly — so the president had to act. Two basic laws of the workplace are discipline and subordination, as Medvedev rightfully pointed out when he scolded Kudrin on Monday, saying, “Such statements appear improper … and can in no way be justified. Nobody has revoked discipline and subordination.”

If Medvedev had let Kudrin’s remarks pass unpunished, he could have faced a mutiny in the ranks. His lame duck status as president would have been worsened by complete disdain from government officials, who would have realized that they, too, could undermine the president and escape retribution.

Kudrin’s dismissal is an unwelcome development for foreign investors, who have counted on his fiscal conservatism to keep the economy stable. But investors also know that no individual is irreplaceable, whether in a company or the government — a notion that Medvedev and Putin should also bear in mind as they look to extend their reign into the next six years.

A characteristic of a good leader is the ability to develop a strong team that can work independently. Kudrin assembled such a team, and we can hope that it will be allowed to continue to guide the government’s finances with integrity.

At the same time, it is important that the next finance minister is given the ability to constructively challenge populist, fiscally irresponsible policies that pose a serious threat to Russia’s economy. Another yes-man in the Cabinet is the last thing Russia needs.




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Igor Biryukov

I disagree with the respected editor that Kudrin's dismissal is an unwelcome development for foreign investors. It is welcome because Kudrin became loopy and obviously didn't know what good for him anymore. Why? Because his political instincts failed. In the center of this is politics. Many towns' welfare in Russia depends on government-sponsored military-related procurement programs, so Russia needs these expenditures if she wants towns in Siberia and the Urals to survive. This is issue number one. Of course, Russia needs high-tech, not the smoke-stack economy of yesterday, but this is another story. On top of that, Putin needs votes coming from these towns and regions. Kudrin must have known that. Therefore, Mr. Kudrin's position is unexplainable. Perhaps he forgot that Russia is not in debt like many other countries, including the US. Russia is one of few countries today that may afford increases like that. Putin's real achievement, not advertised in the US media, was to ensure that everyone pays taxes. Worst comes to worst, periodic borrowing in the open market, like in the US, will ensure that the Treasury has the money to make the government programs running. Russia may want to develop its own robust government bonds program. Instead, the Russian Treasury has been sitting pretty, like a giant government-sponsored hedge fund. Those days are over.

Giles Cattermole

Kudrin is not irreplaceable? Does anyone know of any other half-competent economist ministerial candidates, with the political weight to keep government finances in check? Watch the future numbers for Foreign Direct Investment ……

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