Events in the South Caucasus are like a throwback to the 19th century: local clans are violently killing each other and the world’s leading powers are trying to elbow their way into the region to colonize the “natives.” This is a particularly blatant anachronism considering the 21st- century global movement in the opposite direction toward cooperation and integration. The European Union is a good example. Its members have adopted a constitution, instituted a single government and established transparent borders.
Why don’t we see these positive trends in the South Caucasus as well? The reason is obvious.The Soviet Union left behind chaos and disorder after it collapsed. As a result, former Soviet republics have seen a rebirth of old ethnic tensions that were buried deep under the carpet during totalitarian Soviet rule, including Armenians opposing Azeris and the Abkhaz and Ossetians opposing Georgians.
As successor to the Soviet Union, the Kremlin tried to exert control over the new states as if they were still vassals and tried to keep out foreign influences. Moreover, instead of fulfilling the function of peacemaker among the various Caucasus nationalities, Russia tended to favor one nationality over another. That only deepened regional conflicts and prompted participants to search for support and protection in other regions.
Meanwhile, the United States, inebriated with its Cold War victory and unequaled power, rushed to fill the political and economic vacuum that had developed in the South Caucasus. Washington initially did not take Russia’s interests into consideration, assuming that Moscow would soon swear its allegiance to the United States. When it became evident that Moscow had no intention of towing Washington’s line and was committed to retaining its natural leadership position in the global arena, the United States tried to push Russia out of the former superpower’s zone of influence.
Complicating matters further, Turkey and Iran have also become involved in the Caucasus’ internal squabbles, pursuing their own religious, ethnic and economic objectives.
All of these factors have culminated in a huge tangle of geopolitical power struggles in the South Caucasus. The time has come to untangle this web. Since Moscow and Washington are trying to “reset” relations, the South Caucasus should be given a priority spot on the agenda.
The first step should be for Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and Iran to agree to stop trying to push each other out of the region and to stop carving it up into pieces. Instead, they should get serious about resolving the problems in Nagorno-Karabakh and reaching a final territorial agreement between Georgia and the independent states of Abkhazia and North Ossetia. The next step should be to initiate a dialog on energy and to develop economic cooperation with one another concerning the South Caucasus.
With regard to Russia’s policy on the South Caucasus and former Soviet republics, the Kremlin should understand that young states going through their difficult “teenager” stage of finding their self-identity are generally preoccupied with strengthening their sovereignty. A patronizing attitude from Moscow is perceived negatively and pushes former allies away from Russia and toward other centers of power.
In addition, the Kremlin needs to come to terms with the fact that former Soviet republics will seek to diversify their foreign contacts to include other power centers — chiefly, Europe, the United States and China. It is natural for newly independent states experiencing social and economic difficulties to seek financial support from these centers. In fact, Russia itself is looking for partnerships there as well.
Russia should not use pressure tactics to gain influence in the former Soviet republics. Instead, it needs to put its old stereotypes behind it and concentrate on expanding trade with its partners in the region. Interconnecting trade and investment ties between Russia and the other former Soviet republics is the best way to build a strong, long-term alliance and a new global power center.
Yevgeny Bazhanov is the vice chancellor of research and international relations at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy in Moscow.