The besieged ruble slid further towards the 3,000-per-dollar mark Friday, closing down 63 points at 2,896 per dollar on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange.
Government officials insisted there were no macroeconomic factors behind the ruble's sharp decline, blaming speculation by commercial banks.
But economists worry that the government, under pressure from political lobbies and unable to raise enough money by issuing securities, could re-ignite inflation by pumping more credits into the economy. "Fears of renewed inflation and a loose government control over credit policy are major sources of concern," said Charles Blitzer, chief economist at World Bank in Moscow.
The relative economic stability that Russia reached over the summer, characterized by record low monthly inflation of 4 percent in August, has already begun to show signs of stress. According to government statistics, monthly inflation jumped to 7.7 percent in September. Experts blame state credits to defense and agriculture both for starting the ruble's fall and fueling inflation.
The ruble's steep decline has made the hard currency market extremely profitable, drawing investors away from treasury bill auctions, which the government uses as a non-inflationary source of deficit financing. At the last auction of three-month t-bills Thursday, dealers bought a mere 43 percent of the 1 trillion ruble ($345 million) issue, and only at the very high yield of 165.16 percent.
Blitzer said that the lack of interest in state bonds could eventually lead the government to use inflationary ways of financing the budget deficit, such as issuing credits through the Central Bank.
Acting Finance Minister Sergei Dubinin, however, told Reuters Friday that government bonds, not Central Bank credits, should be used to cover the budget deficit, and predicted that inflation would not exceed 7 percent in the coming months.
But in an ominous move this week, the government ordered the issuance of nearly 1 trillion rubles in credits to cover the army's debt to power stations and enable it to buy fuel.
The government's real intentions will not be clear until it submits a 1995 budget to the State Duma, said Sergei Pavlenko, director of the government Center for Economic Reform. The budget, which has perpetually been delayed in recent years, was due to be among the first issues considered at the State Duma session that started Oct. 5, but the session was thrown into confusion Friday as ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky announced a boycott.
"The economic situation is hardly predictable," said Pavlenko. "I think we should close our eyes and wait for a moment before making any conclusions."
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