Before I get fully acclimatized and dive deep into the city's everyday routine, I'd like to share a few political insights that came to me while half-sleeping in transatlantic flights. The issue for today is the Russian presidency.


Unless something very special happens to Mr. Yeltsin (a deeper sleep than the one over Ireland, that is), I have little doubt that the elections will happen on time, i.e. summer 1996. Consider the following a preview and a betting board.


B. N. Yeltsin. Big Boris may hope for two things, both rather medieval in concept: 1. an economic miracle; 2. feudal obedience from his people. The miracle won't happen, but there is a substantial part of the Russian population that's so zombie-like that they'll vote for anyone who's the current "tsar" and do whatever TV Channel One hints they should do. Because of that I'd rate Boris' chances (which would be minimal if based on logic) as high as six to one.


Al Rutskoi. This guy should have the most weird and controversial electoral strategy. On one hand, he must be 100 percent in opposition to the present regime and its rhetoric; on the other hand, as a "respectable" politician with "democratic" background, he can't really go to extremes. We'll see how he manages to make the twain meet. In any case, unlike most hardcore opposition candidates, he has good looks, good parents, and a heroic legend behind him; five to one.


Vlad Zhirinovsky. Some things can't happen simply because they just can't happen. Zhiri for President is one of such cases. Enough said; 50 to one.


Yegor Gaidar. Apart from aging members of the liberal intelligentsia and a few members of the small entrepreneurial class, I can't imagine who would vote for Russia's Democratic Choice candidate. If chubby Yegor could lose half of his weight and learn to talk to the people not as if he were talking to stupid teenagers, he would stand a theoretical chance; otherwise, he wouldn't; 100 to one.


Grigory Yavlinsky. Excellent in criticizing and all right in image-making, Mr. Yavlinsky has always been somewhat disappointing when it comes to something more practical than sophisticated blah-blah. His Yabloko party, if you could call it a party, also seems far less effective than most. However, his recently formed alliance with the powerful financial "Grupa Most" -- who, according to ever-paranoid Mr. Borovoy, "rule the country," -- is a step in the right direction. Given financial and media (NTV, Segodnya, Echo of Moscow) backing, plus the support of Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, hairy Grigory could go far. A professional team is the top priority -- otherwise the ever-promising candidate could fail as badly as in December 1993; four to one.


Gennady Ziuganov. The Communist Party leader is smart, articulate and charismatic enough to be considered seriously; his social-democratic flirtations may attract some of the "centrist" electorate. A lot will depend on whether the Agrarian Party supports him; 15 to one.


Ivan Rybkin, Sergei Shakhrai, Nikolai Travkin. These guys will be competing in "centrism." Rybkin's advantage is his current ultra-influential position, Shakhrai has a well-working party behind him, and Travkin is famous for his showmanship and sense of humor. All will lose anyway. Rybkin: 10 to one. Shakhrai: 25 to one. Travkin: 75 to one.


Dead hopeless: Vladimir Anpilov, Konstantin Borovoy, Sazhi Umalatova, whatever Romanov.


Possible interesting competitors: Boris Nemtsov (the governor of Nizhny Novgorod -- young, smart, good looking, pragmatic); General Lebed (the head of the 14th Army in Moldova -- cool, macho and clever at the same time, and totally outside the existing boring structures).


Keep this article and verify my betting in '96.


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Alexander Solzhenitsyn has also been seen as a possible presidential contender. Now, a friend of mine is making a film about the famous ex-


exile, and she told me that she was really shocked to find out that literally everyone around her hates the poor old writer enormously. "Some hate him because he fought communists and helped to break the Soviet Union; some hate him because they think he's a chauvinist and an anti-Semite (which he is not) or tries to undermine the current leadership. And everybody hates him because he's always on TV, teaching people how to live and the authorities how to govern. This disgust for the man is intense. The editor whom I always work with has simply refused to participate in a documentary about Solzhenitsyn."