Oil Output Predicted To Fall 8%

ussian oil output will fall around 8 or 9 percent to 325 or 320 million tons this year, and it will take 10 or 15 years to reverse a long-term production slump, a minister said Thursday. Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Anatoly Shatalov said domestic oil consumption would be about 220 million tons. "Output figures may be slightly different, 320 million, 323 million, maybe 325 million tons. Everything depends on demand, mainly on demand abroad," Shatalov said after a news conference. Output was 354 million tons in 1993. But Shatalov declined to say whether his country would boost crude exports to Western countries and reduce exports inside the Commonwealth of Independent States in the short term. "This question will depend on the Western market and on our ability to stabilize oil output," he said. Shatalov said Russia would probably not see an end to the decline of oil output "before 10 or 15 years." Russia relied mainly on foreign investment in the oil and gas industry for stability. He welcomed agreements like the 10-year Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the European Union as well as a recently signed joint declaration of cooperation with the International Energy Agency. But Shatalov said it would be "a disaster" if Russia stopped oil and gas supplies to other members of the CIS because they represented a huge market. Shatalov said former Soviet republics owed Russia more than three trillion rubles ($1.5 billion) for oil and gas supplies. Shatalov also said Russia will not increase natural gas output much although it could boost it to 40 percent within five or six years without opening new production fields. He said that gas output would probably range from 635 billion to 640 billion cubic meters a year for the next five or six years. But he gave no exact figures for 1994 output.