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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/30/2012

October Shows 4% GDP Rise

Russia's gross domestic product rose 4 percent in October, the State Statistics Committee reported Thursday, but economists said the rise was mainly due to seasonal factors and did not herald the end of the country's economic slump.


"It's good news," said Dirk Willer, an economist with the Center for Economic Performance of the London School of Economics. "But it doesn't mean the recession is over."


Despite last month's upturn, GDP -- a broad measure of goods and services -- has declined by 22.4 percent since October 1993, according to the statistics committee.


Sergei Pavlenko, director of the governmental Center for Economic Reform, also cautioned that the statistics are far from being a sign of general economic recovery.


A seasonal increase in agricultural production accounted for the lion's share of the October increase, he said.


Pavlenko also pointed to increased activity by the Tax Police, which has forced private businesses to disclose usually underreported output data.


"Some of the production figures have surfaced due to the pressure of tax authorities," he said.


Energy output also increased last month as the onset of cold weather increased fuel consumption. Production of electricity rose by 15 percent in October while output of natural gas increased by 11 percent, according to the statistics committee.


Retail turnover rose by 3 percent over September, with the share of imported goods growing to 39 percent, from 31 percent in October 1993.


Russians' purchasing power has also grown, with real incomes rising by 13 percent in the first 10 months of the year.


Other data supplied by the committee, however, showed the average wage lagging behind inflation in October, increasing by only 8 percent to 273,000 rubles per month compared with a rise in retail prices of 15 percent.




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