Ministers Plan Tight Budget For 1994
04 March 1994
Russia promised tight curbs on 1994 spending Thursday but ministers are still wrangling over how much to spend and economists said Finance Ministry plans would face stiff parliamentary tests.
A draft budget, approved in principle at a closed-door government meeting, envisages a 1994 deficit of 61.5 trillion rubles ($36 billion), about 10.2 percent of gross domestic product. The 1993 gap was 10.5 percent.
Central Bank loans would finance about 60 percent of the gap. Details from the document were made available to Reuters.
"I think it is a tight budget and a courageous budget and if it is implemented as proposed, it would do a lot to reduce the inflation rate," said one Western economist.
"But it still has to get through parliament. Virtually every parliament puts pressure on its government to spend more and I cannot see Russia being an exception to this."
Miners, industrial workers and farmers are all crying out for extra cash. The government is under pressure to meet these demands to avert widescale strikes in key sectors where wage payments have been delayed frequently.
Itar-Tass quoted Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin as saying that Russia could not increase expenditure beyond planned levels without facing catastrophe.
But several ministers objected to the plans. Farm Minister Viktor Khlystun said cash needed by the agricultural sector was not included and Labor Minister Gennady Melikyan said the budget "bears no relation to real economic policies." The budget, which still has to be debated by parliament, envisages spending of 182.20 trillion rubles and income of 120.70 trillion rubles.
But economists said the estimates for government income looked optimistic. "Even the finance minister has said income is unlikely to be more than 100 trillion rubles," one said.
High 1993 inflation of up to 20 percent a month and a steep fall in the value of the ruble in 1993 mean it is difficult to draw meaningful comparisons with figures from previous years.
Debate on Russia's 1994 budget plans had been postponed repeatedly after key ministers fell ill and amid concern on how much to spend on key sectors like agriculture. A previous budget draft envisaged a deficit of 17 percent of GDP.
One analyst said that, in a high-inflation country like Russia, the budget deficit as a proportion of GDP was less important than the amount to be financed by Central Bank loans."The amount Russia plans to finance this way is not unreasonable," he said.
The latest draft assumed the ruble would weaken to 3,500 or 4,000 to the dollar by the end of 1994 from around 1,700 now. It is already trading at record lows against the dollar.
The budget puts monthly inflation at an average 11 or 12 percent this year, down from 22 in January and 14 to 16 percent in February. A second economist said this could be optimistic.
"There is no doubting the reformist credentials of new Finance Minister Sergei Dubinin but there is some doubt about whether he has the weight to make the figures stick," he said.
Dubinin replaced Boris Fyodorov in January. Fyodorov, who warned that Russia was lurching toward hyperinflation, had said the ruble could fall to 12,000 to the dollar this year.
The budget also said Russia would spend 11.4 trillion rubles in servicing and repaying foreign debts.
Russia, which owes Western creditors about $80 billion, has been seeking extra time to repay its debts. It won a 1993 rescheduling deal with the Paris Club of creditor states and hopes for agreement on 1994 repayments soon both with the Paris Club and with creditor banks.
Central Bank Chairman Viktor Gerashchenko, quoted by RIA news agency, said inflation was likely to quicken to around 20 percent in March on seasonal payments for farming.
He forecast annual inflation down sharply to 200 percent by the end of 1994 from around 1,000 percent in 1993. Russia has promised to cut monthly inflation to 7 to 9 percent by the end of this year.
Yeltsin's new economic adviser, Alexander Livshits, told the government Wednesday it should aim to reduce inflation to 3 to 5 percent monthly.
A draft budget, approved in principle at a closed-door government meeting, envisages a 1994 deficit of 61.5 trillion rubles ($36 billion), about 10.2 percent of gross domestic product. The 1993 gap was 10.5 percent.
Central Bank loans would finance about 60 percent of the gap. Details from the document were made available to Reuters.
"I think it is a tight budget and a courageous budget and if it is implemented as proposed, it would do a lot to reduce the inflation rate," said one Western economist.
"But it still has to get through parliament. Virtually every parliament puts pressure on its government to spend more and I cannot see Russia being an exception to this."
Miners, industrial workers and farmers are all crying out for extra cash. The government is under pressure to meet these demands to avert widescale strikes in key sectors where wage payments have been delayed frequently.
Itar-Tass quoted Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin as saying that Russia could not increase expenditure beyond planned levels without facing catastrophe.
But several ministers objected to the plans. Farm Minister Viktor Khlystun said cash needed by the agricultural sector was not included and Labor Minister Gennady Melikyan said the budget "bears no relation to real economic policies." The budget, which still has to be debated by parliament, envisages spending of 182.20 trillion rubles and income of 120.70 trillion rubles.
But economists said the estimates for government income looked optimistic. "Even the finance minister has said income is unlikely to be more than 100 trillion rubles," one said.
High 1993 inflation of up to 20 percent a month and a steep fall in the value of the ruble in 1993 mean it is difficult to draw meaningful comparisons with figures from previous years.
Debate on Russia's 1994 budget plans had been postponed repeatedly after key ministers fell ill and amid concern on how much to spend on key sectors like agriculture. A previous budget draft envisaged a deficit of 17 percent of GDP.
One analyst said that, in a high-inflation country like Russia, the budget deficit as a proportion of GDP was less important than the amount to be financed by Central Bank loans."The amount Russia plans to finance this way is not unreasonable," he said.
The latest draft assumed the ruble would weaken to 3,500 or 4,000 to the dollar by the end of 1994 from around 1,700 now. It is already trading at record lows against the dollar.
The budget puts monthly inflation at an average 11 or 12 percent this year, down from 22 in January and 14 to 16 percent in February. A second economist said this could be optimistic.
"There is no doubting the reformist credentials of new Finance Minister Sergei Dubinin but there is some doubt about whether he has the weight to make the figures stick," he said.
Dubinin replaced Boris Fyodorov in January. Fyodorov, who warned that Russia was lurching toward hyperinflation, had said the ruble could fall to 12,000 to the dollar this year.
The budget also said Russia would spend 11.4 trillion rubles in servicing and repaying foreign debts.
Russia, which owes Western creditors about $80 billion, has been seeking extra time to repay its debts. It won a 1993 rescheduling deal with the Paris Club of creditor states and hopes for agreement on 1994 repayments soon both with the Paris Club and with creditor banks.
Central Bank Chairman Viktor Gerashchenko, quoted by RIA news agency, said inflation was likely to quicken to around 20 percent in March on seasonal payments for farming.
He forecast annual inflation down sharply to 200 percent by the end of 1994 from around 1,000 percent in 1993. Russia has promised to cut monthly inflation to 7 to 9 percent by the end of this year.
Yeltsin's new economic adviser, Alexander Livshits, told the government Wednesday it should aim to reduce inflation to 3 to 5 percent monthly.
|
|
Tweet |
|
This article has no comments. Be the first to leave a comment |
Discussion
Comments
To post comments you must be registered
Comments via Facebook
Most Read
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
Ruble Hits Lowest Rate in 3 Years
The ruble dipped to a three-year low Thursday as oil prices fell further.
3.
Putin's Foreign Policy Goes on the Road
In a symbolic gesture, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday arrived in Minsk to pay his first foreign visit as head of state to controversial Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
4.
European Debt Crisis Driving Workers East
Despite its inconveniences, Moscow has become a magnet for foreign job-seekers, as unemployment in Europe is hitting record highs amid the debt crisis.
5.
Superjet Flight Data Recorder Found Near Volcano Crash Site
Villagers have found the flight data recorder from the Russian plane that slammed into an Indonesian volcano three weeks ago, killing 45 people.
6.
Businessman Shot in Central Moscow
A prominent business leader was shot and wounded by three masked men in the heart of Moscow on Friday — just steps away from FSB headquarters.
7.
Duma Deputy Robbed at Ritzy Hotel
State Duma Deputy Gennady Gudkov was robbed at the upscale Hotel National across from the street from the Kremlin after a conference, Gudkov said Wednesday evening.
8.
China-Russia Airplane Venture Planned
United Aircraft Corporation and Chinese Commercial Aircraft Corporation plan to start a joint venture to develop long-haul aircraft.
9.
Fridman Wants Big Change at TNK-BP
TNK-BP co-owner Mikhail Fridman said BP's Soviet-born partners are urging the British company to return to talks about changing the proportion of the 50-50 partnership.
10.
Russian Railways in Smoking Crackdown, Privatization Freeze
Smokers will find train journeys longer and a tad more frustrating as traditional indulgence of the habit is phased out on Russian Railways' passenger routes.
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
Tabloid: Superjet Downed by U.S. Industrial Sabotage
A tabloid claims that Russian intelligence agencies are investigating the possibility that the U.S. military may have brought down the Sukhoi Superjet that crashed in Indonesia.
3.
McFaul Faces Kremlin Scorn Once Again
The Foreign Ministry assailed U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul for comments the ministry said went "far beyond the bounds of diplomatic etiquette."
4.
Sweden Wins Eurovision; Grannies Take Second
Sweden’s Loreen won the Eurovision Song Contest in Azerbaijan on Sunday before an international TV audience of 100 million, days after angering Azeri authorities by meeting rights activists critical of the host country’s human rights record.
5.
Red Square Flyboy Regrets Air Stunt
When Mathias Rust landed his white Cessna on Red Square on May 28, 1987, he had placed all his hopes for world peace in Mikhail Gorbachev.
6.
Protest and Chaos Seen in Kudrin-Ordered Study
Continued protests in Russia will likely lead to violence or chaotic change, according to a new study ordered by the former finance minister.
7.
Russia's New Propaganda Minister
After Monday's announcement that historian Vladimir Medinsky was appointed the culture minister, critics quickly labeled him the new propaganda minister. Medinsky's academic ethics and historical distortions may raise serious questions, but for the Kremlin, he has three important attributes that are much more important: He is a model United Russia leader, a firm Putin loyalist and a skilled sophist.
8.
Ukraine in Uproar Over Status of Russian Language
Ukraine's ruling party has triggered violent protests with a move to upgrade the official role of Russian, a sensitive issue opponents say will split the country.
9.
150 Detained at Anti-Kremlin Rallies
About 150 people were detained Sunday as scores of people gathered for a series of anti-government demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
10.
Vkontakte Founder Tosses 5,000-Ruble Notes Out Window
<p>The founder of the social networking site Vkontakte celebrated St. Petersburg’s 309th anniversary over the weekend by tossing paper airplanes carrying 5,000-ruble notes out a building window.</p>
1.
Hundreds of Arrests Set Grim Backdrop for Victory Day Celebrations
As Moscow gears up to celebrate its victory in World War II, 67 years ago Wednesday, the shadow of political conflict shrouds the capital as hundreds of arrests cloud Victory Day festivities.
2.
Russian Satellite Takes Highest-Ever Resolution Picture of Earth
A stunning 121-megapixel snapshot of the Earth was taken by a Russian weather satellite in what is thought to be the highest resolution picture of the planet ever taken from space.
3.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
4.
Bodies, No Survivors Spotted at Superjet Crash
Search and rescue helicopters and volunteers struggling through thick forest and mountainous terrain spotted bodies but no survivors on the Indonesian mountainside where a Sukhoi Superjet 100 crashed by the time darkness forced an end to the search Thursday night.
5.
Tabloid: Superjet Downed by U.S. Industrial Sabotage
A tabloid claims that Russian intelligence agencies are investigating the possibility that the U.S. military may have brought down the Sukhoi Superjet that crashed in Indonesia.
6.
Mysterious Photos Reveal an Unseen WWII
After the end of World War II, Paul Sadler returned home to Chicago with three German books and a photo album from the Dachau concentration camp.
7.
Furniture Magnate Shot Dead in Mercedes in Moscow Region
A 46-year-old furniture magnate was killed with six gunshot wounds to the head and chest early Sunday as he arrived in his Mercedes at his home in the Moscow region.
8.
New Cabinet Has Familiar Cast of Characters
President Vladimir Putin on Monday announced the makeup of the new Cabinet answering to Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with three-fourths of the members having been replaced.
9.
Vladivostok Bridge Climbers Fined 300 Rubles Each
Three thrill-seekers who climbed two Vladivostok bridges earlier this week and took photos from the top were fined 300 rubles ($10) each for trespassing.
10.
Superjet Missing in Indonesia With 50 on Board
A dark cloud was cast Wednesday on the revival of Russia’s aviation industry when a Sukhoi-built Superjet 100 with 50 people on board disappeared from the radar screens of Indonesian flight controllers.


