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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/29/2012

Dow Fall Has Europe Abuzz

LONDON -- Talk of huge flows of funds from stocks and shares into bonds is just that at the moment -- talk.


And comparisons with the 1987 panic are well wide of the mark too, financial market analysts say.


In the U.S. on Tuesday, stock prices plunged by 2.4 percent, the sharpest drop in nine months. At the same time, U.S. debt prices surged, with the key long bond up by 1.1 percent.


That had the inevitable knock-on effect in Europe on Wednesday, with bond prices higher all around and share prices tumbling. But there were few signs of money flowing from one to the other.


"There's been a lot of chat about it, particularly over the last couple of days, but as far as I'm aware we haven't seen much business being done," said Philip Tyson, European bond analyst at CS First Boston in London.


Others backed that view, saying they had seen little of the money pulled out of equities being invested in bonds. And they noted there were plenty of other places it could be parked, in short-term deposits or commodity markets, for example.


"There's not that much new money moving into the bond market just yet," said Adrian Owens, European economist at Yamaichi International Europe in London.


Three-month Treasury Bill rates fell in New York on Tuesday, suggesting that at least some of the money pulled out of stocks was moved into short-term deposits. Fears of the effects of high interest rates were blamed for the stock market fall.


But gold prices were only slightly firmer in London on Wednesday morning, and base-metal prices were lower. Dealers said further losses could prompt investors to take profits in the metal markets to pay for losses in equities.


Comparisons with 1987 are rejected, however. Then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average of leading U.S. stocks fell to a low of 1,616 in October, after ending September at 2,596.


The front-month U.S. Treasury bond future dropped to a 76-07/32 low in October 1987, after ending that September at 81-22/32.


"There's talk of 1987 all over again, where everything sold off in October," said Dick Howard, an economist at Julius Baer Investments in London.


"But I'm not sure it's quite true, because in 1987 everything was overvalued, while now bonds have fallen already."


The front-month U.S. Treasury bond future has fallen from a 122-10/32 high on Sept. 7 last year to 97-05/32 at the end of pit trading in Chicago on Tuesday. But over the same period the Dow Jones Industrial Average has actually gained ground.


The Dow closed on Wall Street on Tuesday at 3,678, up from 3,607 on Sept. 7 last year.


"It's a case of catch-up," said Howard, referring to Tuesday's share-price tumble. That was also the explanation for the financial-market movements early Wednesday in Europe, where traders had little indication of what was to happen in the U.S. when they left their desks for home Tuesday evening.


"There was some catching up in Europe to what's happened in New York," said Craig Shute, an analyst at Bear, Stearns International in London.


By mid-morning in London, the December German Bund future was trading at 90.80, up from 90.45 at the end of Tuesday trading. The U.K. long gilt future was changing hands at 103-04/32, up from 102-18/32.


In contrast, the FTSE 100 index of leading U.K. shares was down 46 points, at 3,032. And the German DAX share index was down 36 points, at 2,039.


But Tyson at CS First Boston also rejected comparisons with seven years ago. "I don't see it being similar to 1987," he said. Any falls "will be much shallower from these levels," he said.




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