Carter's New Diplomacy
29 December 1994
No matter how one views the goals of Russia's action in Chechnya (I personally think Moscow had every right to use force in this situation), one thing is now perfectly clear: The country has gotten itself into a position in which victory is impossible. Moreover, in the wake of President Boris Yeltsin's address Tuesday, the situation has reached the point where the only possible topic for negotiation is surrender terms. In such a situation, when there is no apparent escape, one begins somewhat desperately to look around for someone capable of devising an acceptable solution.
Naturally, one thinks of that deus ex machina of contemporary U.S. diplomacy, a man who only appears on the scene when all possibilities for dialogue have been exhausted and continued bloodshed seems inevitable: the indefatigable Jimmy Carter, a man who has done considerably more for the world and for his country than has the entire U.S. State Department. As a result of his negotiations with the former military leaders of Haiti and with North Korea's dictator Kim Il Sung, two dangerous predicaments were pulled back from the very brink of open violence. For his latest trick, Carter has managed -- at least temporarily -- to bring the long-running warfare in Bosnia-Herzegovina virtually to a halt.
Although many people have criticized Carter's "amateur diplomacy," his results speak for themselves. For those of us in Moscow, the time is ripe to consider what exactly is the secret of the former president -- who had relatively few foreign-policy successes during his years in the White House. In my view, Carter's main secret is that he has found a level on which to operate in conflict situations that official diplomacy inherently excludes.
One important peculiarity of recent international conflicts is that neither the United States nor any of the other great powers has been capable of controlling either the development of crises or the behavior of the participants in these conflicts. Despite all their talk about a "new world order" based on mutual respect and equality, the great powers cannot rid themselves of the notion of their own greatness. In practice, this means that -- even in the pursuit of noble ends, such as the protection of human rights or the rights of ethnic minorities -- the great powers quickly resort to the threat or use of force to intimidate those who disagree with them.
However, the events of the last year show that putting all one's trust in the threat of force is a mistake, to say the least. After all, in order to make the threat convincing, leaders must begin by convincing themselves and their own citizens that such an action is truly in their national interest. And the only way to do this is to paint the recalcitrant party in such black tones that any attempt at dialogue begins to appear like a capitulation to evil. Of course, once one has worked oneself into this state of mind, it becomes impossible to formulate a judicious policy.
In addition, the cost of such actions in terms of the lives of both soldiers and innocent civilians is so high that a country such as the United States, even if it does decide to intervene, is not likely to do so with its full military might. And everyone understands this perfectly well.
So Washington and the other great powers are left perplexed: What comes next, after negotiations come to nothing but escalations of threats and accusations, and there is no real will to make use of force? Without clear military goals, such interventions cannot bring any real results. Instead, we get the kind of situation that we have already seen in Somalia and Bosnia, and that is now unfolding in Chechnya.
And this point, the very brink of disaster, is where Jimmy Carter comes to the aid of American diplomacy.
Carter is not bound to hew the official line that the party across the negotiating table is the very personification of evil. He has become, in effect, a professional "de-demonizer" in the realm of international relations. This 70-year-old idealist has turned out to be more rational than all the world's politicians. He is open to dialogue, and to the working out of compromises. After all, the world's "demons" are not really bent on suicide. They are open to compromises that can allow them to escape from their predicaments with at least their dignity in tact. By providing them with an opportunity to do so, Carter is performing a great service for official diplomacy.
In the cases of the Bosnian Serbs and North Korea, I believe that Russian diplomats might very well have achieved what Carter did. Moreover, judging from statements from Moscow, Russia was prepared to play exactly that kind of role. However, no matter how sad it may be to admit it, the time has not yet come for Russia to play the role of honest broker in international affairs. After all, such a broker, in addition to taking a rational approach, must also have real weight in the eyes of the parties directly involved in the conflict. Clearly Carter has such influence, and Russia's Foreign Ministry does not. When, for example, Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev tried to mediate between Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the world community, nothing resulted. No one could take his guarantees seriously.
The explanation for this may lie in the fact that Moscow itself, as the Chechen situation shows, is not always capable of acting rationally. Our politicians have not yet liberated themselves from the tendency to demonize.
Now it would seem that it is not the United States or the world community at large, but Russia in particular that needs the wisdom and detachment of someone like Carter to help it escape from the crisis in Chechnya. If someone with these skills cannot be found in Russia, would it really be completely unthinkable to call on President Carter himself?
Alexander Golz is a Moscow-based journalist. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.
Naturally, one thinks of that deus ex machina of contemporary U.S. diplomacy, a man who only appears on the scene when all possibilities for dialogue have been exhausted and continued bloodshed seems inevitable: the indefatigable Jimmy Carter, a man who has done considerably more for the world and for his country than has the entire U.S. State Department. As a result of his negotiations with the former military leaders of Haiti and with North Korea's dictator Kim Il Sung, two dangerous predicaments were pulled back from the very brink of open violence. For his latest trick, Carter has managed -- at least temporarily -- to bring the long-running warfare in Bosnia-Herzegovina virtually to a halt.
Although many people have criticized Carter's "amateur diplomacy," his results speak for themselves. For those of us in Moscow, the time is ripe to consider what exactly is the secret of the former president -- who had relatively few foreign-policy successes during his years in the White House. In my view, Carter's main secret is that he has found a level on which to operate in conflict situations that official diplomacy inherently excludes.
One important peculiarity of recent international conflicts is that neither the United States nor any of the other great powers has been capable of controlling either the development of crises or the behavior of the participants in these conflicts. Despite all their talk about a "new world order" based on mutual respect and equality, the great powers cannot rid themselves of the notion of their own greatness. In practice, this means that -- even in the pursuit of noble ends, such as the protection of human rights or the rights of ethnic minorities -- the great powers quickly resort to the threat or use of force to intimidate those who disagree with them.
However, the events of the last year show that putting all one's trust in the threat of force is a mistake, to say the least. After all, in order to make the threat convincing, leaders must begin by convincing themselves and their own citizens that such an action is truly in their national interest. And the only way to do this is to paint the recalcitrant party in such black tones that any attempt at dialogue begins to appear like a capitulation to evil. Of course, once one has worked oneself into this state of mind, it becomes impossible to formulate a judicious policy.
In addition, the cost of such actions in terms of the lives of both soldiers and innocent civilians is so high that a country such as the United States, even if it does decide to intervene, is not likely to do so with its full military might. And everyone understands this perfectly well.
So Washington and the other great powers are left perplexed: What comes next, after negotiations come to nothing but escalations of threats and accusations, and there is no real will to make use of force? Without clear military goals, such interventions cannot bring any real results. Instead, we get the kind of situation that we have already seen in Somalia and Bosnia, and that is now unfolding in Chechnya.
And this point, the very brink of disaster, is where Jimmy Carter comes to the aid of American diplomacy.
Carter is not bound to hew the official line that the party across the negotiating table is the very personification of evil. He has become, in effect, a professional "de-demonizer" in the realm of international relations. This 70-year-old idealist has turned out to be more rational than all the world's politicians. He is open to dialogue, and to the working out of compromises. After all, the world's "demons" are not really bent on suicide. They are open to compromises that can allow them to escape from their predicaments with at least their dignity in tact. By providing them with an opportunity to do so, Carter is performing a great service for official diplomacy.
In the cases of the Bosnian Serbs and North Korea, I believe that Russian diplomats might very well have achieved what Carter did. Moreover, judging from statements from Moscow, Russia was prepared to play exactly that kind of role. However, no matter how sad it may be to admit it, the time has not yet come for Russia to play the role of honest broker in international affairs. After all, such a broker, in addition to taking a rational approach, must also have real weight in the eyes of the parties directly involved in the conflict. Clearly Carter has such influence, and Russia's Foreign Ministry does not. When, for example, Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev tried to mediate between Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the world community, nothing resulted. No one could take his guarantees seriously.
The explanation for this may lie in the fact that Moscow itself, as the Chechen situation shows, is not always capable of acting rationally. Our politicians have not yet liberated themselves from the tendency to demonize.
Now it would seem that it is not the United States or the world community at large, but Russia in particular that needs the wisdom and detachment of someone like Carter to help it escape from the crisis in Chechnya. If someone with these skills cannot be found in Russia, would it really be completely unthinkable to call on President Carter himself?
Alexander Golz is a Moscow-based journalist. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.
|
|
Tweet |
|
This article has no comments. Be the first to leave a comment |
Discussion
Comments
To post comments you must be registered
Comments via Facebook
Most Read
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
Ruble Hits Lowest Rate in 3 Years
The ruble dipped to a three-year low Thursday as oil prices fell further.
3.
Putin's Foreign Policy Goes on the Road
In a symbolic gesture, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday arrived in Minsk to pay his first foreign visit as head of state to controversial Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
4.
European Debt Crisis Driving Workers East
Despite its inconveniences, Moscow has become a magnet for foreign job-seekers, as unemployment in Europe is hitting record highs amid the debt crisis.
5.
Superjet Flight Data Recorder Found Near Volcano Crash Site
Villagers have found the flight data recorder from the Russian plane that slammed into an Indonesian volcano three weeks ago, killing 45 people.
6.
Duma Deputy Robbed at Ritzy Hotel
State Duma Deputy Gennady Gudkov was robbed at the upscale Hotel National across from the street from the Kremlin after a conference, Gudkov said Wednesday evening.
7.
China-Russia Airplane Venture Planned
United Aircraft Corporation and Chinese Commercial Aircraft Corporation plan to start a joint venture to develop long-haul aircraft.
8.
Fridman Wants Big Change at TNK-BP
TNK-BP co-owner Mikhail Fridman said BP's Soviet-born partners are urging the British company to return to talks about changing the proportion of the 50-50 partnership.
9.
Businessman Shot in Central Moscow
A prominent business leader was shot and wounded by three masked men in the heart of Moscow on Friday — just steps away from FSB headquarters.
10.
Russian Railways in Smoking Crackdown, Privatization Freeze
Smokers will find train journeys longer and a tad more frustrating as traditional indulgence of the habit is phased out on Russian Railways' passenger routes.
1.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
2.
McFaul Faces Kremlin Scorn Once Again
The Foreign Ministry assailed U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul for comments the ministry said went "far beyond the bounds of diplomatic etiquette."
3.
Sweden Wins Eurovision; Grannies Take Second
Sweden’s Loreen won the Eurovision Song Contest in Azerbaijan on Sunday before an international TV audience of 100 million, days after angering Azeri authorities by meeting rights activists critical of the host country’s human rights record.
4.
Ukraine in Uproar Over Status of Russian Language
Ukraine's ruling party has triggered violent protests with a move to upgrade the official role of Russian, a sensitive issue opponents say will split the country.
5.
150 Detained at Anti-Kremlin Rallies
About 150 people were detained Sunday as scores of people gathered for a series of anti-government demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
6.
Vkontakte Founder Tosses 5,000-Ruble Notes Out Window
<p>The founder of the social networking site Vkontakte celebrated St. Petersburg’s 309th anniversary over the weekend by tossing paper airplanes carrying 5,000-ruble notes out a building window.</p>
7.
U.S.-Russian 3-Year Multientry Visa Bill to Go to Duma
After months of delays, the government has finalized a much-touted visa agreement with the United States and drafted the corresponding bill.
8.
Kennan's Insight Into the Russian Soul
George Kennan is best known as the author of the containment policy, which served as the overarching principle informing U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War.
9.
TNK-BP Head Quits as Shareholder Crisis Flares
Billionaire Mikhail Fridman resigned Monday as chief executive of TNK-BP, plunging the country's No. 3 oil firm deeper into crisis and challenging co-owner BP's grip on the business.
10.
McFaul and State Department Respond to Attack
The U.S. ambassador and the U.S. State Department said they were surprised by blistering criticism from the Foreign Ministry regarding comments McFaul made to students last week.
1.
Hundreds of Arrests Set Grim Backdrop for Victory Day Celebrations
As Moscow gears up to celebrate its victory in World War II, 67 years ago Wednesday, the shadow of political conflict shrouds the capital as hundreds of arrests cloud Victory Day festivities.
2.
Russian Satellite Takes Highest-Ever Resolution Picture of Earth
A stunning 121-megapixel snapshot of the Earth was taken by a Russian weather satellite in what is thought to be the highest resolution picture of the planet ever taken from space.
3.
City Mistakenly Plants Marijuana Field Instead of Lawn
After the city spread soil containing "grass" seeds around the Brateyevo metro station, a field of marijuana plants sprouted up instead of a lawn.
4.
Bodies, No Survivors Spotted at Superjet Crash
Search and rescue helicopters and volunteers struggling through thick forest and mountainous terrain spotted bodies but no survivors on the Indonesian mountainside where a Sukhoi Superjet 100 crashed by the time darkness forced an end to the search Thursday night.
5.
Tabloid: Superjet Downed by U.S. Industrial Sabotage
A tabloid claims that Russian intelligence agencies are investigating the possibility that the U.S. military may have brought down the Sukhoi Superjet that crashed in Indonesia.
6.
Mysterious Photos Reveal an Unseen WWII
After the end of World War II, Paul Sadler returned home to Chicago with three German books and a photo album from the Dachau concentration camp.
7.
Furniture Magnate Shot Dead in Mercedes in Moscow Region
A 46-year-old furniture magnate was killed with six gunshot wounds to the head and chest early Sunday as he arrived in his Mercedes at his home in the Moscow region.
8.
New Cabinet Has Familiar Cast of Characters
President Vladimir Putin on Monday announced the makeup of the new Cabinet answering to Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, with three-fourths of the members having been replaced.
9.
Vladivostok Bridge Climbers Fined 300 Rubles Each
Three thrill-seekers who climbed two Vladivostok bridges earlier this week and took photos from the top were fined 300 rubles ($10) each for trespassing.
10.
Superjet Missing in Indonesia With 50 on Board
A dark cloud was cast Wednesday on the revival of Russia’s aviation industry when a Sukhoi-built Superjet 100 with 50 people on board disappeared from the radar screens of Indonesian flight controllers.



