Russia's economy could shrink as much as 8 percent this year after dropping 9.8 percent in the first four months of 2009, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said Tuesday.
Klepach said the economy contracted by 10.5 percent in April, news agencies reported, contributing to the 9.8 percent drop between January and April.
"The GDP decline will amount to 6 to 8 percent under our estimates," Klepach said. "We are currently working to make the forecast more precise."
He blamed the weakening economy on declining investment -- down 15.8 percent in January to April -- and industrial production, which slumped nearly 17 percent in April.
Such a contraction would cut budget revenues by up to an extra 300 billion rubles ($9.66 billion) and raise the deficit to 9 percent of gross domestic product, Deputy Finance Minister Oksana Sergiyenko told reporters.
The current budget is based on a deficit of 7.4 percent and an economic contraction of just 2.2 percent. But Medvedev said on Monday that the slowdown will likely be deeper than that, and the Economic Development Ministry has already forecast that it could reach 6 percent.
There was some encouragement for investors looking for the first green shoots showing that the slowdown has bottomed.
May likely saw net capital inflows of $2 billion, marking the first month of inflows since July 2008, Sergiyenko said.
The April trade surplus hit a 3-month high of $7.5 billion as exports picked up -- perhaps thanks to a slight recovery in crude prices -- while imports were reined in, Klepach said.
"We are working on the basis that the economy is near the bottom," Klepach said. "The depth of the slowdown, the scale of the fall is still increasing, but the pace is slowing down."
Klepach said the economy contracted by 10.5 percent in April, news agencies reported, contributing to the 9.8 percent drop between January and April.
"The GDP decline will amount to 6 to 8 percent under our estimates," Klepach said. "We are currently working to make the forecast more precise."
He blamed the weakening economy on declining investment -- down 15.8 percent in January to April -- and industrial production, which slumped nearly 17 percent in April.
Such a contraction would cut budget revenues by up to an extra 300 billion rubles ($9.66 billion) and raise the deficit to 9 percent of gross domestic product, Deputy Finance Minister Oksana Sergiyenko told reporters.
The current budget is based on a deficit of 7.4 percent and an economic contraction of just 2.2 percent. But Medvedev said on Monday that the slowdown will likely be deeper than that, and the Economic Development Ministry has already forecast that it could reach 6 percent.
There was some encouragement for investors looking for the first green shoots showing that the slowdown has bottomed.
May likely saw net capital inflows of $2 billion, marking the first month of inflows since July 2008, Sergiyenko said.
The April trade surplus hit a 3-month high of $7.5 billion as exports picked up -- perhaps thanks to a slight recovery in crude prices -- while imports were reined in, Klepach said.
"We are working on the basis that the economy is near the bottom," Klepach said. "The depth of the slowdown, the scale of the fall is still increasing, but the pace is slowing down."