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Economic Slowdown Eases in Q3

The economy shrank 8.9 percent in the third quarter, year-on-year, in its smallest contract since the start of 2009, data showed on Thursday in further proof that the worst of the crisis is over.

The fall in gross domestic product was smaller than the 9.4 percent estimated by the Economic Development Ministry and marks an improvement on the 10.9 percent fall seen in the April to June period.

In quarterly terms, the economy grew 13.9 percent unadjusted for seasonal effects, the Federal Statistics Service said.

Russia was hard hit starting in the second half of 2008 by a collapse in oil prices, investor flight from emerging countries and the virtual shutdown of global capital markets. This summer, though, brought first green shoots of recovery, not least with oil prices bouncing back up towards one-year highs.

Economic Development Ministry data suggests that third quarter marked a return to seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter growth, thus signaling the end of the recession.

But officials remain cautious, stressing that the crisis is not yet over and risks remain.

"On the whole, the government, the Central Bank and regional authorities ... have succeeded in stabilizing the situation in the economy," President Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday in an annual state-of-the-nation address.

"But ... the revival in the markets remains weak and unstable. And the most dangerous thing now is to calm down. We have to continue realizing the anti-crisis plan and be ready to implement new measures."

The Kremlin's top economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich said anti-crisis measures would be unwound once sustainable economic growth has been seen for several quarters.

Economists expect that in year-on-year terms, GDP growth will resume from the first quarter of 2010.

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