The parliamentary opposition was engaged in a last minute search late Wednesday for an elusive 226 votes, the magic figure it requires to unseat the government in a vote of no-confidence on Thursday.
But Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Communist Party, all but admitted the search was hopeless and that the Duma's self-proclaimed big day might well turn out to be no such thing.
"If it clings on by a few dozen votes there will be no trust," Zyuganov said of the government, already lowering his sights from predicting the government's fall.
Thursday's proceedings will be the highest profile occasion for the lower house of parliament since it was elected last December. In the morning Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is scheduled to give a report on the government's draft 1995 budget.
Then Duma leaders will be given the floor and, providing it has not been withdrawn, the motion of no-confidence will be put to the vote.
Zyuganov said opposition factions would meet at 8:45 A.M. Thursday morning to discuss last minute tactics and the possibility of a "compromise."
But the central committee of his party has already resolved for combat with the government. Last Saturday it passed a resolution calling for the resignation of "at the least" privatization boss Anatoly Chubais, Economics Minister Alexander Shokhin, Interior Minister Viktor Yerin, Defense Minister Pavel Grachev and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.
Kozyrev is breaking off a tour of the Middle East especially to return to the Duma for the vote, Interfax reported.
The arithmetic is not consoling for the opposition.
In a far less controversial motion only 224 deputies voted on Wednesday to condemn the government for "failing to carry out the 1994 budget." That was the opposition's second dry run at a no-confidence vote, having gathered 214 votes for the same motion of censure last Friday.
Thursday's no-confidence motion will be altogether a tougher proposition and will still need the support of 226 deputies, an absolute majority of the 450-seat chamber, to go through.
The initiators of Thursday's motion are eight members of the Democratic Party of Russia faction in the Duma, who will vote against their one-time leader Nikolai Travkin, now a member of the government. To their votes against the government can be added 45 Communist deputies, the 13 members of the nationalist Russian Path group and some but not all of the 55 Agrarian Party faction.
Even if ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky orders his 60 Liberal Democratic Party "falcons" to join the ranks of the doubters -- and he has not yet finally made up his mind -- the opposition will not have mustered more than 170 votes.
On the other hand the numbers will not cheer the government. Prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin can count on the support of the 30 members of the Party of Unity and Accord faction, which has two top level ministers in his cabinet and some but not all of the 71 Russia's Choice deputies.
But in the end skepticism and apathy may win the day. Two liberal Duma leaders, Grigory Yavlinsky and Boris Fyodorov, who command 55 votes between them, have said their groups will not vote and abstain respectively.
Two further Duma factions, the 64-member centrist New Regional Policy faction and the 24 deputies of Women of Russia, said they will wait for Chernomyrdin's report before deciding. Few are active supporters or foes of the government. Many will probably abstain.
Even if the government does lose Thursday's vote President Boris Yeltsin is at liberty under the constitution to ignore it. If the Duma again passes a vote of no-confidence he then has the option of dissolving it and calling new elections.
Thursday's vote may turn out to be a chance for parliament to shake the tree of government if it cannot uproot it.
Sergei Parkhomenko, political commentator for the newspaper Segodnya, said Yeltsin might take a few symbolic steps towards placating the opposition. He predicted the president would sack three ministers who are only serving in an acting capacity -- acting Finance Minister Andrei Vavilov, acting head of the Press Committee Vladimir Volodin and Vladimir Mashits, acting minister for cooperation with the CIS -- and take the economics portfolio from Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Shokhin.
"We can expect that in the interests of calming things down there will be cosmetic changes in the government," Parkhomenko said. "The sacking of these three ministers is inevitable."
But Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Communist Party, all but admitted the search was hopeless and that the Duma's self-proclaimed big day might well turn out to be no such thing.
"If it clings on by a few dozen votes there will be no trust," Zyuganov said of the government, already lowering his sights from predicting the government's fall.
Thursday's proceedings will be the highest profile occasion for the lower house of parliament since it was elected last December. In the morning Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is scheduled to give a report on the government's draft 1995 budget.
Then Duma leaders will be given the floor and, providing it has not been withdrawn, the motion of no-confidence will be put to the vote.
Zyuganov said opposition factions would meet at 8:45 A.M. Thursday morning to discuss last minute tactics and the possibility of a "compromise."
But the central committee of his party has already resolved for combat with the government. Last Saturday it passed a resolution calling for the resignation of "at the least" privatization boss Anatoly Chubais, Economics Minister Alexander Shokhin, Interior Minister Viktor Yerin, Defense Minister Pavel Grachev and Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev.
Kozyrev is breaking off a tour of the Middle East especially to return to the Duma for the vote, Interfax reported.
The arithmetic is not consoling for the opposition.
In a far less controversial motion only 224 deputies voted on Wednesday to condemn the government for "failing to carry out the 1994 budget." That was the opposition's second dry run at a no-confidence vote, having gathered 214 votes for the same motion of censure last Friday.
Thursday's no-confidence motion will be altogether a tougher proposition and will still need the support of 226 deputies, an absolute majority of the 450-seat chamber, to go through.
The initiators of Thursday's motion are eight members of the Democratic Party of Russia faction in the Duma, who will vote against their one-time leader Nikolai Travkin, now a member of the government. To their votes against the government can be added 45 Communist deputies, the 13 members of the nationalist Russian Path group and some but not all of the 55 Agrarian Party faction.
Even if ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky orders his 60 Liberal Democratic Party "falcons" to join the ranks of the doubters -- and he has not yet finally made up his mind -- the opposition will not have mustered more than 170 votes.
On the other hand the numbers will not cheer the government. Prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin can count on the support of the 30 members of the Party of Unity and Accord faction, which has two top level ministers in his cabinet and some but not all of the 71 Russia's Choice deputies.
But in the end skepticism and apathy may win the day. Two liberal Duma leaders, Grigory Yavlinsky and Boris Fyodorov, who command 55 votes between them, have said their groups will not vote and abstain respectively.
Two further Duma factions, the 64-member centrist New Regional Policy faction and the 24 deputies of Women of Russia, said they will wait for Chernomyrdin's report before deciding. Few are active supporters or foes of the government. Many will probably abstain.
Even if the government does lose Thursday's vote President Boris Yeltsin is at liberty under the constitution to ignore it. If the Duma again passes a vote of no-confidence he then has the option of dissolving it and calling new elections.
Thursday's vote may turn out to be a chance for parliament to shake the tree of government if it cannot uproot it.
Sergei Parkhomenko, political commentator for the newspaper Segodnya, said Yeltsin might take a few symbolic steps towards placating the opposition. He predicted the president would sack three ministers who are only serving in an acting capacity -- acting Finance Minister Andrei Vavilov, acting head of the Press Committee Vladimir Volodin and Vladimir Mashits, acting minister for cooperation with the CIS -- and take the economics portfolio from Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Shokhin.
"We can expect that in the interests of calming things down there will be cosmetic changes in the government," Parkhomenko said. "The sacking of these three ministers is inevitable."
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