But in their political cocoons, the government, the parliament and the foreign institutions capable of assisting Russia seem to have lost sight of the dimensions of the problem.
President Yeltsin spends time fighting with Mikhail Gorbachev; the parliament seems more interested in bringing down the government than in dealing honestly with the multitude of economic problems facing the country.
Russia is not getting a good example from the industrialized democracies. The Paris Club continues to debate the rescheduling of former Soviet debts, an issue that should have been decided long ago. The governments cannot agree amongst themselves on a unified approach.
The International Monetary Fund, which represents the combined interests of the industrialized democracies, seems to sit back in the shadows of this debate, declining to become publicly involved in the economic direction of the country or to make public its timetables and criteria for the granting of its aid, which would be useful to the proponents of reform. That there is a problem is illustrated by the fact that the first $1 billion of stand-by credits is still untouched; the IMF should see to it that this money gets used.
The West often seems to forget that Russia is still a heavily armed nuclear power. and in the West, as in Russia, political considerations are obscuring the need for action on the most dangerous economic crisis the world has seen in many years.
It is well past time for a unified response from the government, the parliament and the wealthy nations. Let it begin with a policy to halt the credit emissions before inflation soars any higher and with a firm commitment to let market forces take the lead.
The IMF should find a way to deliver its aid, even if that means bringing over an army of accountants to help the Russians administer it. The West should set a concrete timetable for the rescheduling of the debt, and stick to it. The Paris Club should step forward with a generous extension of time for repayment of the former Soviet debt or, at the very least, a fixed period for resolving the issue.
With a hard winter coming, it is time for a serious warming to reality.
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