Surfacing from retirement last weekend to make a rare televised appearance, former President Boris Yeltsin -- looking healthier and thinner than he has in years -- predicted the looming demise of the organization that had opposed his every move as president. The Communist Party, he said, is "melting before our eyes."
By most accounts, the Party is indeed in self-destruct. It was stripped earlier this year of its influential committee chairmanships in the State Duma. Party members then ousted their highest-placed colleague, Speaker Gennady Seleznyov, who led a defection of a number of relative moderates.
But even having suffered a long-predicted leadership split, the Communist Party will not disappear, analysts say.
"The Communist Party saw the split-off of about a third of its leadership," Kremlin-connected political analyst Sergei Markov said. "But the party will not splinter. Yeltsin spoke too soon."
The party now occupies a strange position in what critics call President Vladimir Putin's "managed democracy." Sidelined from the corridors of power by a series of moves by Kremlin-backed parties, the Communists nonetheless retain a stable electorate of mostly elderly voters, with support from 20 percent of respondents in recent polls.
The Communists landed the largest number of votes of any party -- more than 24 percent -- in elections in 1999.
"What happened was that the political configuration of the State Duma changed," Seleznyov said Sunday on TVS television, speaking of last year's merger of two centrist parties to form the pro-Putin United Russia Party. Its deputies proceeded to undo a deal made in 2000 that had given the Communists 10 committee chairmanships.
Seleznyov blamed the Communists' woes on leader Gennady Zyuganov's failure to compromise.
"Gennady Andreyevich should have seen that," Seleznyov said. "He refused to sit down and negotiate the redivision of the seats. So it was done for him."
Deprived of eight of its seats, the party leadership moved to give up the last two and also commanded Seleznyov to step down from his Duma post. Seleznyov refused, as did cultural committee chief Nikolai Gubenko and women, families and youth committee chair Svetlana Goryacheva. All three were voted out of the party.
Other moderates followed by renouncing party membership, including some so-called red governors like Nizhny Novgorod's Gennady Khodyrev.
Seleznyov now plans to form his own party. Announcing the news Sunday, he said it could be based on the Rossia, or Russia, movement that he began in 2000.
Is this the beginning of an exodus from the Communist ranks?
Yeltsin, for his part, seized the moment to pronounce dead the party he had wanted banned during his presidency. There was little love lost -- the Communists, who worked diligently to undermine Yeltsin's policies by stalling legislation, voted unsuccessfully to impeach their No. 1 foe in 2000.
"Thank God the time of living under illusions and lying is at an end," Yeltsin said in an interview aired on RTR television Sunday. "How long can our Communist Party march under a red banner and portraits of Lenin and Stalin?"
But others say talk of the party's final demise is premature. Seleznyov himself denied the party had split, adding that he is not forming his new party to woo current Communist Party members.
Communist voters seem relatively unflapped by recent events. According to a poll of 1,100 party members and voters in 45 regions published Monday, only 9 percent of respondents said the defection had caused a crisis; 37 percent said the move only strengthened the party.
Vladimir Pribylovsky of the Panorama think tank said Seleznyov's new party would most likely attract voters who would otherwise vote for United Russia. "The moderates will take with them younger voters who were coming into the [Communist] Party," he said. "But that's a small number and won't affect the party's overall results."
Markov said some of the Communist electorate would go over to a future left-center coalition orchestrated by the Kremlin. "That's how managed democracy works," he said. "But the end result depends on how much financial, political, administrative and media resources are plugged into the new bloc."
"It's too early to talk about the end of the Communist Party," Pribylovsky said. "The party thrives on poverty. There's a lot of that in Russia, and it will provide a large electorate for some time."
By most accounts, the Party is indeed in self-destruct. It was stripped earlier this year of its influential committee chairmanships in the State Duma. Party members then ousted their highest-placed colleague, Speaker Gennady Seleznyov, who led a defection of a number of relative moderates.
But even having suffered a long-predicted leadership split, the Communist Party will not disappear, analysts say.
"The Communist Party saw the split-off of about a third of its leadership," Kremlin-connected political analyst Sergei Markov said. "But the party will not splinter. Yeltsin spoke too soon."
The party now occupies a strange position in what critics call President Vladimir Putin's "managed democracy." Sidelined from the corridors of power by a series of moves by Kremlin-backed parties, the Communists nonetheless retain a stable electorate of mostly elderly voters, with support from 20 percent of respondents in recent polls.
The Communists landed the largest number of votes of any party -- more than 24 percent -- in elections in 1999.
"What happened was that the political configuration of the State Duma changed," Seleznyov said Sunday on TVS television, speaking of last year's merger of two centrist parties to form the pro-Putin United Russia Party. Its deputies proceeded to undo a deal made in 2000 that had given the Communists 10 committee chairmanships.
Seleznyov blamed the Communists' woes on leader Gennady Zyuganov's failure to compromise.
"Gennady Andreyevich should have seen that," Seleznyov said. "He refused to sit down and negotiate the redivision of the seats. So it was done for him."
Deprived of eight of its seats, the party leadership moved to give up the last two and also commanded Seleznyov to step down from his Duma post. Seleznyov refused, as did cultural committee chief Nikolai Gubenko and women, families and youth committee chair Svetlana Goryacheva. All three were voted out of the party.
Other moderates followed by renouncing party membership, including some so-called red governors like Nizhny Novgorod's Gennady Khodyrev.
Seleznyov now plans to form his own party. Announcing the news Sunday, he said it could be based on the Rossia, or Russia, movement that he began in 2000.
Is this the beginning of an exodus from the Communist ranks?
Yeltsin, for his part, seized the moment to pronounce dead the party he had wanted banned during his presidency. There was little love lost -- the Communists, who worked diligently to undermine Yeltsin's policies by stalling legislation, voted unsuccessfully to impeach their No. 1 foe in 2000.
"Thank God the time of living under illusions and lying is at an end," Yeltsin said in an interview aired on RTR television Sunday. "How long can our Communist Party march under a red banner and portraits of Lenin and Stalin?"
But others say talk of the party's final demise is premature. Seleznyov himself denied the party had split, adding that he is not forming his new party to woo current Communist Party members.
Communist voters seem relatively unflapped by recent events. According to a poll of 1,100 party members and voters in 45 regions published Monday, only 9 percent of respondents said the defection had caused a crisis; 37 percent said the move only strengthened the party.
Vladimir Pribylovsky of the Panorama think tank said Seleznyov's new party would most likely attract voters who would otherwise vote for United Russia. "The moderates will take with them younger voters who were coming into the [Communist] Party," he said. "But that's a small number and won't affect the party's overall results."
Markov said some of the Communist electorate would go over to a future left-center coalition orchestrated by the Kremlin. "That's how managed democracy works," he said. "But the end result depends on how much financial, political, administrative and media resources are plugged into the new bloc."
"It's too early to talk about the end of the Communist Party," Pribylovsky said. "The party thrives on poverty. There's a lot of that in Russia, and it will provide a large electorate for some time."
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