The Russian troops in Chechnya are, it seems, either in a stage of psychological warfare or of desperation. If the former, then the rationale behind Thursday morning's bombing raids must be to soften up defenses and persuade as many civilians as possible to leave the city, so it can later be more easily stormed.
This would mesh with the fact that the city still has not been sealed off, leaving would-be refugees a choice of roads they can take to escape the coming bloodbath. It all makes a gruesome kind of sense.
But it also reflects a deeply flawed plan.
The experience of Bosnia is that random bombing does not conquer the fighting spirit of a people, even if it does force them to flee temporarily. It merely enrages them, probably for generations to come.
What then of desperation? With the news that Defense Minister Pavel Grachev has fired several commanders of the Chechen operation and one has resigned in protest, it could be that the jets have been sent in for lack of any coherent strategy at all. This is a grotesque scenario, but all too common in such conflicts.
Whether planned or ordered out of desperation, Thursday's bombing raids are morally disgusting. Eye witnesses saw jets deliberately target groups of civilians, while official Russian comments that the Chechens have been faking bomb attacks by blowing up houses themselves are downright shameful.
Just as important, in the long term Chechnya's 1.2 million people must feel that the persecution they suffered from Stalin in 1944 -- when they were exiled en masse to Kazakhstan and Siberia and fully 50 percent of their population died in the exodus -- is being repeated. What hope then for a reconciliation with Moscow?
In this context, President Boris Yeltsin's assurances that the genocide of 1944 will not be repeated and his offer of financial compensation once the war is over seem wildly out of touch with reality. Money will not heal these wounds, nor will assurances that Chechens will not be exiled console them about being bombed in their houses.
This war has already gone too far for any true reconciliation. A police state in Chechnya, the institutions of which would be constantly under guerrilla attack, is now the likely outcome. In that case, whatever happens in the battle for Grozny, Yeltsin has already lost the war.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.