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Today's paper. Last Updated: 06/02/2012

Russia Hedges on Aluminum Cutbacks

Russia warned Friday that it would make no further cuts in aluminum output unless other producers complied with a global deal to cut oversupply.


"If you compare the size of our cuts with cuts by other world producers, you will see that we are running ahead of the whole planet," said Georgy Volfson, director for development and investments at the Aluminiy producers' group.


"Now we will mirror what other producers do ... if they raise production, our smelters will do so as well," he said.


Volfson said Russia had cut about 280,000 tons from its aluminum production in November in annualized terms, compared to the same period last year.


This represented most of the 300,000 tons Russia pledged to slash as the first stage of this year's deal, he said.


But Western analysts say Russian monthly output in 1993 peaked in November and this gave the impression that 1994 cuts were greater than they actually were.


Volfson said Russia would produce about 2.65 million tons of aluminum this year, down 170,000 tons from 1993.


Under the international agreement, Russia promised to cut production by 500,000 tonnes in two stages this year.


But other producers had only reduced production by 600,000 tons instead of 900,000 tons, the first stage in their 1.5 million reduction pledge, Volfson said, referring to data compiled by the International Primary Aluminum Institute (IPAI).


"IPAI figures show that European producers almost doubled daily aluminum production in September," he said.


"Russia will never agree to carry on (with cuts) alone. We do not see any support to our reduction drive from other producers."


Russia's aluminum exports would fall to 2.1 million tons this year from 2.47 million in 1993 as a result of lower production but Volfson forecast exports next year were likely to remain the same as in 1994 if no more production cuts were carried out.


He said the world aluminum market had not gained enough strength yet to expect prices for primary aluminum to rise steadily without further output reductions.


Aluminum prices sagged to $1,050 a tonne last year, the lowest in nearly a decade under pressure from a global glut, mostly blamed on excessive Russian exports.


The metal is currently trading at $1,930 and experts say the near-term outlook is bullish.


But Volfson warned this could be a temporary gain.


"If output cuts are discontinued, we can expect the price to fall again," he warned.




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