The economy grew last month on an annual basis for the first time since November 2008, an indicator derived from service and manufacturing surveys showed.
The economy of the world’s largest energy exporter expanded 0.5 percent after shrinking 0.3 percent in January, VTB Capital, which compiles the indicator, said in an e-mail Thursday. The slump bottomed out in June, when output fell 10.8 percent, according to VTB Capital data.
“The Russian economy is continuing to expand, although at a slower pace than at the end of 2009,” Alexandra Yevtifyeva, senior economist at VTB Capital, said in the report. “The greatest cause for concern is the recent weakness in new business orders in both sectors of the economy and the worsening employment conditions in manufacturing.”
Last year’s surge in oil prices bolstered state finances as the price of Urals crude more than doubled from a low of $32.34 in December 2008. Industrial output and retail sales also boosted gross domestic product, which rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in January from the previous month, Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said Feb. 25. GDP fell a record 7.9 percent last year.
“The first two months of 2010 suggest that marginal annual growth of gross domestic product will be achieved in the first quarter,” VTB Capital said.
Frail investment demand and rising unemployment remain the “weak links” of the economic recovery, Klepach said. Domestic demand remains “unstable” and below pre-crisis levels even as the economy has recently posted improvements in output and real disposable incomes, the Central Bank said Feb. 19.
VTB Capital calculates the indicator by using output measures from its Purchasing Managers’ Indexes, which are surveys of business conditions in manufacturing and services industries.