Summiteers Set to Agree To Disagree

It has been billed as the "new Cold War summit," the antidote to the recent run of friendly superpower get-togethers of the last few years.


But next week's Russian-American summit could turn out to be neither of those extremes. Instead, a mixture of aggressive postures and friendly smiles is the likely outcome as relations between Moscow and Washington continue their downward slide.


As domestic public opinion has hardened against them, both presidents Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton will probably end up agreeing to disagree on a host of issues, analysts say.


Among the difficult issues to be raised at the May 10 to 11 Moscow summit are:


?NATO's plans to expand into Eastern Europe, strongly opposed by Russia;


?Russia's war in Chechnya, which has been denounced by the West;


?A Russian deal, strongly condemned by Washington, to sell nuclear technology to Iran;


?The likelihood that Russia will not honor the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty;


?Attempts to form a new organization to restrict the sale of military technology to potentially dangerous countries.


Frequent high-level contact recently is proof that the two sides have at least evolved a working relationship to manage their differences. U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev have met three times this year and the two presidents spoke by telephone for 30 minutes last week.


"I don't expect a lot of surprises," said Andrew Pierre, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.


The summit will be held against a backdrop of steadily deteriorating relations, which U.S. Ambassador Thomas Pickering recently called an "increasing growth of misperceptions."


Each president has a difficult domestic situation to contend with. Yeltsin's popularity is at an all-time low and he has split with his former West-leaning allies over the war in Chechnya.


Clinton faces a Congress dominated by his Republican opponents, many of whom say he has been too soft on Yeltsin. The U.S. president came under significant domestic pressure not to come to Moscow at all.


"Clinton showed some political courage in coming to Moscow," Pierre said. "There are a lot of people in the United States who said he should not."


Although there will be two days of friendly photo opportunities, neither side can be expected to make major concessions as a result of their domestic political problems.


"I think it will be the first summit more focused on points of divergence than points of coincidence," said Alexei Pushkov, foreign affairs editor with the weekly Moscow News.


On the two most divisive issues, NATO and Iran, the battle lines have been drawn but each side may have a little to give.


For many Russian politicians, the enlargement of NATO is an emotive issue and smacks of Cold War politics. Pushkov said he thought it unlikely Yeltsin would back down.


"I don't see Yeltsin really agreeing with NATO enlargement on the 50th anniversary of the victory over Nazism on May 9," Pushkov said. He pointed out that Yeltsin had publicly rebuked Kozyrev in March for promising the West too much on NATO. Last December in Budapest, Russia also rejected the treaty organization's intermediate Partnership for Peace program.


However, Yeltsin hinted to Time magazine last week that the two sides were working on a compromise.


"We are moving closer to finding a solution that could be acceptable to both sides but this decision should be taken during our personal meeting," Yeltsin said.


Pierre said the cumbersome process of NATO enlargement might create room for a solution. The accession of any new member, such as Poland or Hungary, needs to be approved by the parliaments of the current 16 member-states, which is by no means a foregone conclusion, he said.


"What I would look for would be a Russian adherence to Partnership for Peace, which they were believed to have prior to Budapest," Pierre said. "The quid pro quo might be a willingness to give Russia a special relationship with NATO. If this were agreed at the summit, it would give the summit a positive air."


On Iran, too, some have sniffed a deal in the air. The United States has vigorously condemned Russia's $1 billion deal providing Iran with two light-water nuclear reactors and nuclear expertise.


But Moscow has stood by the agreement on the reactors. Kozyrev complained last week that Washington was selling similar reactors to North Korea and insisted that the deal was completely legal. Pushkov said the Russians might sell the reactors, but agree to a thorough international regime of inspection for them.