The Russian currency, which is not freely convertible on world markets, has fallen 36 percent this year, and dealers expect it to fall further.
"There is no reason for a strong ruble now," said one trader. "I expect the dollar to rise by another 10 or 15 rubles at each trading session."
Also Thursday, the MICEX introduced a new method for calculating turnover to alleviate the effect of a 0.1-percent tax that the Moscow government initiated March 1. The tax has led to a decline in trading volumes as banks swap hard currency directly among themselves.
Alexei Mamontov, head of MICEX currency operations, said the exchange would now use net trade figures, eliminating compulsory dollar sales from the total volumes to cut the taxable amount of trade.
Russian exporters are obliged to swap half of their hard currency earnings for rubles on one of Russia's six authorized exchanges. Compulsory sales usually account for between $20 million and $50 million of the total daily turnover on the MICEX.
The change meant trade volume fell to $20.15 million Thursday, compared to initial supply of $51 million and initial demand for $58 million. Gross turnover on Wednesday was $62.90 million, but the exchange said net turnover was only $41.35 million.
Dealers said the market was encouraged because the MICEX changed the way it calculated volumes, to lower banks' tax burden.
"Of course it is good," said Alexei Zhiltsov, of Delovaya Rossiya Bank. "As well as easing the exchange tax it will enable dealers to estimate real Central Bank intervention."
Traders said the Central Bank sold about $6.5 million Thursday to help bridge supply and demand and prevent a sharper ruble fall.
They said fear of rising inflation and concern that the government was poised to issue big credits to the agricultural sector were the main factors behind this week's ruble slide.
Russian prices rose 22 percent in January -- the highest monthly rate for 15 months. No February inflation figures are yet available.
(Reuters, MT)
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