During the ongoing economic crisis, the outbreak of a global flu epidemic would seem to be all it would take to put the nail in the world economy's coffin.
Yet if signs from the end of last week are to be believed, the only real victim of the swine flu crisis may be Mexican pork sales, which dropped by as much as 85 percent, according to the country's pork producer association.
While the virus has whipped the media into a frenzy, equities, including airline stocks, have appeared to be relatively resistant to the outbreak, with markets rallying on not-so-bad 2008 earning reports and buoyant oil prices that have remained comfortably more than $50 a barrel.
A 2008 World Bank report says one of the sectors at greatest risk of disrupted service during an epidemic is the financial service industry, which could see activities such as currency and securities trading hampered seriously.
Following the SARS outbreak in 2003, the U.S. Treasury issued a stress test of the financial sector to determine its vulnerability to future epidemics. While the test may have better prepared the industry for swine flu, the ultimate trial this week will be how the markets handle the results of the most recent bank stress test there.
Details regarding the health of the 19 largest U.S. banks are expected to be announced Thursday, and the results may mark a turning point for market participants who have long struggled to determine the depth of banks' bad assets.
A number of banks will probably be told that they have to raise additional capital, but markets so far have been responding relatively positively, said James Beadle, chief investment strategist at Pilgrim Asset Management.
"It seems that the markets are objectively in denial of bad news," he said, despite the fact the U.S. Federal Reserve has already twice delayed the release of the results.
In this case, market participants may be reacting to the fact that banks are likely to have a relatively easy time finding capital and that at this point, all the banks have disclosed all their debts, said UralSib chief strategist Chris Weafer.
"What could have been a negative announcement three months ago may already be a positive one," he said.
It has been said more than once during the economic crisis that when the United States sneezes, everyone catches a cold, and the idiom has induced even more eye-rolling during the onset of swine flu.
In terms of the stress test, however, U.S. actions might serve as a remedy for the rest of the world.
The Fed's decision to raise capital requirements for banks could encourage other central banks to act similarly. In Russia's case, this could mean the Central Bank will decide to speed up its own consolidation of the banking sector and reconsider raising its own capital requirements for banks as soon as this fall, Weafer said.
Despite jitters over a swine flu epidemic, markets weathered last week's news relatively well after slight dips on exchanges on April 25, when news of the outbreak first hit.
The MICEX Index lost 2.2 percent on Monday trading, while the RTS Index fell 3.4 percent. The MICEX finished the four-day holiday trading week down 0.3 percent on Thursday at 920.4 points, while the RTS closed up 0.2 percent at 832.9 points.
In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Index both rose 0.5 percent, while London's FTSE remained relatively flat, dropping less than 0.1 percent.
Airline stocks, which looked to be hardest hit on fears of travel bans, managed to claw back some losses through much of the week. Aeroflot rose 1.3 percent to 33.9 rubles on the MICEX, while international carriers that service Russia ended down for the week after large percentage drops on Monday trading. Delta Air Lines fell 14.3 percent Monday and 13.5 percent for the week.
In the past, epidemics have had a mixed effect on global markets. The S&P 500 Index reported a drop of 24.7 percent during the outbreak of the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed an estimated 3 percent of the worldwide population, but the 1968 Hong Kong influenza panic coincided with double-digit market upswings in the West, with the British equity market adding 57.5 percent that year.
It would be foolish to consider the 1918 markets without regard to the end of World War I, and it seems unlikely that markets this year will be influenced by swine flu alone.
"To a large extent, [swine flu] is just another risk in a long year. ...? People have become so used to bad news," Weafer said.
Investors see no reason to panic prematurely given the current economic conditions, Beadle said. "Yes, swine flu could be a serious problem, but there's no point in reacting to that until we understand how serious it is," he said.
Yet if signs from the end of last week are to be believed, the only real victim of the swine flu crisis may be Mexican pork sales, which dropped by as much as 85 percent, according to the country's pork producer association.
While the virus has whipped the media into a frenzy, equities, including airline stocks, have appeared to be relatively resistant to the outbreak, with markets rallying on not-so-bad 2008 earning reports and buoyant oil prices that have remained comfortably more than $50 a barrel.
A 2008 World Bank report says one of the sectors at greatest risk of disrupted service during an epidemic is the financial service industry, which could see activities such as currency and securities trading hampered seriously.
Following the SARS outbreak in 2003, the U.S. Treasury issued a stress test of the financial sector to determine its vulnerability to future epidemics. While the test may have better prepared the industry for swine flu, the ultimate trial this week will be how the markets handle the results of the most recent bank stress test there.
Details regarding the health of the 19 largest U.S. banks are expected to be announced Thursday, and the results may mark a turning point for market participants who have long struggled to determine the depth of banks' bad assets.
A number of banks will probably be told that they have to raise additional capital, but markets so far have been responding relatively positively, said James Beadle, chief investment strategist at Pilgrim Asset Management.
"It seems that the markets are objectively in denial of bad news," he said, despite the fact the U.S. Federal Reserve has already twice delayed the release of the results.
In this case, market participants may be reacting to the fact that banks are likely to have a relatively easy time finding capital and that at this point, all the banks have disclosed all their debts, said UralSib chief strategist Chris Weafer.
"What could have been a negative announcement three months ago may already be a positive one," he said.
It has been said more than once during the economic crisis that when the United States sneezes, everyone catches a cold, and the idiom has induced even more eye-rolling during the onset of swine flu.
In terms of the stress test, however, U.S. actions might serve as a remedy for the rest of the world.
The Fed's decision to raise capital requirements for banks could encourage other central banks to act similarly. In Russia's case, this could mean the Central Bank will decide to speed up its own consolidation of the banking sector and reconsider raising its own capital requirements for banks as soon as this fall, Weafer said.
Despite jitters over a swine flu epidemic, markets weathered last week's news relatively well after slight dips on exchanges on April 25, when news of the outbreak first hit.
The MICEX Index lost 2.2 percent on Monday trading, while the RTS Index fell 3.4 percent. The MICEX finished the four-day holiday trading week down 0.3 percent on Thursday at 920.4 points, while the RTS closed up 0.2 percent at 832.9 points.
In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Index both rose 0.5 percent, while London's FTSE remained relatively flat, dropping less than 0.1 percent.
Airline stocks, which looked to be hardest hit on fears of travel bans, managed to claw back some losses through much of the week. Aeroflot rose 1.3 percent to 33.9 rubles on the MICEX, while international carriers that service Russia ended down for the week after large percentage drops on Monday trading. Delta Air Lines fell 14.3 percent Monday and 13.5 percent for the week.
In the past, epidemics have had a mixed effect on global markets. The S&P 500 Index reported a drop of 24.7 percent during the outbreak of the 1918 Spanish flu, which killed an estimated 3 percent of the worldwide population, but the 1968 Hong Kong influenza panic coincided with double-digit market upswings in the West, with the British equity market adding 57.5 percent that year.
It would be foolish to consider the 1918 markets without regard to the end of World War I, and it seems unlikely that markets this year will be influenced by swine flu alone.
"To a large extent, [swine flu] is just another risk in a long year. ...? People have become so used to bad news," Weafer said.
Investors see no reason to panic prematurely given the current economic conditions, Beadle said. "Yes, swine flu could be a serious problem, but there's no point in reacting to that until we understand how serious it is," he said.
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