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Kazakhstan Struggles To Fullfil Its Promise

ALMATY, Kazakhstan -- These are testing times for Kazakhstan, the oil-rich former Soviet republic, and for its progressive leader, President Nursultan Nazarbayev.


Kazakhstan, with its vast oil and gas reserves and its mineral wealth, has been seen as among the top tips for economic success of all the post-Soviet states.


But, partly as a result of the loss of Soviet economic ties, industrial and agricultural output have slumped and living standards have fallen for many of the 17 million population.


So when Nazarbayev, the former Communist Party chief who has been president since 1991, became convinced that Prime Minister Sergei Tereshchenko's government was not doing enough to lift the crisis and push on with reform, he told ministers to quit.


"The cabinet of ministers and its administration have shown a complete inability to carry out firmly and purposefully its own program of action," the president told parliament.


In Tereshchenko's place, Nazarbayev proposed Akezhan Kazhegeldin, a pro-market economist, and on Oct. 12 parliament accepted the nomination.


Some of the government's opponents saw no real change in the appointment of Kazhegeldin, first deputy prime minister in the outgoing government. They accused Nazarbayev of merely trying to distract attention from the economic crisis.


"This is just a routine change of faces," Serikbolsim Abdildim, former parliament speaker and leader of the official opposition Republic movement told TNN independent television.


"In the republic now there is economic chaos. Corruption, crime and tyranny are spreading. The army of the unemployed is growing," Abdildim said.


"The time has come to evaluate the activity of the head of state himself."


However, Kazhegeldin acknowledged his government would have to take unpopular measures and was as good as his word.


After just two days in office, he persuaded parliament to brave popular opposition and agree to free the price of bread. Parliament had already rejected a similar move 15 times.


He said the step was essential and warned that if the price were not raised, producers would refuse to sell.


After the decision, protest meetings were held in several towns across Kazakhstan and there were calls for Nazarbayev to go, though the situation has remained calm.


Last June, Nazarbayev and Tereshchenko's government agreed a 15-month anti-crisis program designed to boost production, attract investment and curb inflation.


Kazakhstan's industrial production fell 29 percent in the first six months of 1994 compared with a year earlier.


Inflation has been cut to a monthly 7 percent in September. But opponents say inflation has been held down by not paying state salaries and pensions for months, by offering credits at high rates and by not raising wages.


"When you artificially hold down inflation, in return you get structural depression," said Socialist Party leader Gaziz Aldamzharov. "He (Nazarbayev) has already long ago done what he can."


Despite the present problems, Nazarbayev's policies have brought relative stability and have attracted a growing number of Western and Asian businessmen to Kazakhstan.


Mark Mobius, the influential head of Templeton Emerging Markets Fund and the Templeton Developing Markets Trust, gave Kazakhstan a strong endorsement Oct. 19, saying it could become one of the world's leading emerging markets.


"There's no doubt about it, Kazakhstan has the potential to be one of the world's most exciting emerging markets," Mobius said in a report after a four-day visit.


He said the privatization campaign, the oil, gas and mineral reserves and tourism offered the greatest opportunities.


Olzhas Suleimenov, parliamentarian, writer and leading anti-nuclear activist, said finding a way out of the current crisis was an important test for the young state.


"These are tough times but we have to do something about it and we realize it. We need the words freedom and independence to be filled with real substance so they can be associated with plenty, well-being and security.


"Only then will we get the feeling it was worth doing it all."

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