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Kazakhstan at Crossroads in Space

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The politics of space are frequently eclipsed by the politics of energy, and yet disruptions in the satellite world can often have unforeseen consequences. There is a certain danger whenever you take either pipelines or satellites for granted.

In early June, all contact was lost with Kazsat 1, Kazakhstan's first communication satellite. Now Kazakhstan's space agency must await the already scheduled launch of the Kazsat 2 satellite in 2009 to help fill the void.

In June 2006, President Vladimir Putin joined Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev at the huge Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, which Moscow leases Baikonur for $115 million per year, to witness the launch of Kazsat 1. It was a moment of great pride for Kazakhstan -- and especially so for Nazarbayev, who would soon depart on a trip to the United States.

With the loss of Kazsat 1, a Russian-built satellite, the Kazakh government now finds itself at a crossroads -- in space. For one thing, Russia let Kazakhstan down in this instance. At the same time, Moscow's seeming indifference to Astana's demands that Russian engineers and space companies drastically change launch procedures at Baikonur for public safety and environmental reasons does not help matters either.

This has been an ongoing dispute that has flared out in the open on several occasions. Kazakhstan maintains a laser-like focus on the continued use of one specific rocket fuel by Russia's Federal Space Agency. Exposure to certain rocket fuels that are known carcinogens can result in great harm to any person or population that might come in contact with it.

Kazakhstan views the presence of a particular form of hydrazine-based propellant in the fuel tanks of Russian Proton rockets and other launch vehicles that are routinely launched from Baikonur as unacceptable. While Astana emphasizes that a reduction, let alone a complete phase out of its use, must happen "as quickly as possible," the Federal Space Agency maintains the status quo, demonstrating little or no interest in complying with this request, despite a Russian-Kazakh joint agreement on this matter signed in 2004.

Early this year, the U.S. Defense Department highlighted the fact that the health and safety of the general public worldwide was very much at risk because of the presence of a relatively limited amount of another variant of hydrazine fuel aboard a malfunctioning U.S. spy satellite. Protecting public health and safety thus emerged as the primary reason why the United States shot this satellite down in February.

Disconnecting the Proton fuel problem from the Kazsat 1 loss is not recommended because of the role of a single Moscow-based organization, the Khrunichev Space Center. Here, different teams from this one organization are not only building Kazsat 2 on the one hand -- after building the failed Kazsat 1 -- but running the Proton program, too.

Meanwhile, Russian space executives have new launch sites in motion, both in Kourou, the European Space Agency complex close to the coast of South America, as well as in Vostochny in eastern Russia, where launches could commence as early as 2015. Another possible Russian launch site is Biak Island in Indonesia. Launches at any or all of these sites might undermine Baikonur's role in the future.

New coastal launch sites in Asia are coming on line quickly including soon Hainan Island in China, already a space and satellite powerhouse. Along the coast of Andhra Pradesh, India is launching satellites at a brisk rate -- even Israeli satellites -- while slowly constructing its own vast domestic constellation of communications and Earth-observation satellites.

Yes, Kazakhstan is at a crossroads -- in space, but at least for now, Kazakhstan seems comfortable in Russia's orbit. While Astana goes on shouting that the Proton fuel must go, its ties to Moscow remain firm.

Peter J. Brown has written about satellite technology and the global space sector for 20 years. Richard Lourie will return to this spot in two weeks.

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