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Investors Still Wary as Conference Ends

Top government officials predicted Friday stronger foreign investment totals this year over last year and higher privatization receipts in 1996, as investors wound up the three-day Dow Jones/Telerate and Sachs Associates conference on Russian capital markets.


Investors, though, while cheered by the healthy turnout at the event, seemed cautious about sinking big money into Russia -- at least until the results of December's parliamentary polls are clear.


Economics Minister Yevgeny Yasin said estimates show that by the end of 1995 foreign investment will amount to $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion for the year.


Alfred Kokh, acting chief of the State Property Committee, said if all goes as planned the government should fulfill the budget plan of raising 8.7 trillion rubles ($1.93 billion) through privatization, and expects to bring in 11 trillion rubles next year.


Participants found the conference useful and were impressed by the high-level officials who turned out for it, although First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais and Foreign Trade Minister Oleg Davydov did not attend due to illness.


Delegates were also pleased with the more than 500 attendees at the conference, which was sponsored by Dow Jones/Telerate and Sachs Associates.


"This particular conference -- as far as conferences go -- saw a larger turnout of actual investors," said Marc Cohen, managing director of Hermes Capital Management. But he added that as is common at conferences, there was "low turnout in real money."


Infrastructural concerns are still a deterrent to attracting the big money to Russia, one investor said.


"Unless the market gets up to strength, certain types of money won't get into the market," said Andrew Fox, managing director of Pacific Gemini, whose Russian joint-stock company Tiger Securities manages a $12 million fund out of Vladivostok. Tiger Securities is planning another $30 million fund as well.


Investors said political concerns were palpable, with shareholders sitting on their portfolios for the time being to see what December will bring. Even then, the equity markets might stagnate until after the presidential election in June.


While the stock market may not see a boom in the near future, fixed income could take its place, investors said. Most attendees at the conference were primarily interested in equities, but fixed-income investors praised the stable ruble, low inflation and high yields of Russian treasury bills.

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